Week 10 round-up

Another really disappointing weekend. It is incredible how many picks we are missing at the moment. Odds are moving in the right direction for our bets, but when it comes to deciding the match luck is simply not on our side. This was illustrated best in the Monday match, where Hobro dominated Esbjerg and were ahead 2-0. Our bet was heading home at 4.25, but Esbjerg managed to snatch a draw with the equaliser arriving in minute 92 on a penalty for hand ball although the television pictures showed that no hand was on the ball. Unfortunate, but we must have some luck in the bank! Only glimmer of succes this weekend was Kirkevold's goal which gave us a #Twitbets winner at odds 4.50.

Finally, just to illustrate the quality of our picks. Here are our three recommendations this weekend with our picked odds and the closing odds:

Viborg-AaB: (AH +0) 2. Our odds: 1.875. Closing odds: ~1.60
FC Nordsjælland-AGF: 2. Our odds: 3.55. Closing odds: ~2.85
Hobro-Esbjerg: 1. Our odds: 4.25. Closing odds: ~3.75

Surely, we cannot continue to be so terrible in predicting the results. We will give another go next weekend. Picks will probably arrive Tuesday.

SønderjyskE-OB preview

Friday 25/9 18.00

SønderjyskE (4th) are performing way above expectations. They have a good mentality and adjust to the opponent, which has worked with great success. For this match, they will benefit from the return of strong central midfielder Adama Guira, while striker Tommy Bechmann could also return from injury. SønderjyskE are perhaps not the most convincing team when they have to dominate the match. They prefer relying on counter-attacks, why they often tend to struggle in home matches. OB (6th) are facing a quite poor period in terms of quality on the pitch. They won narrowly against Viborg last weekend and lost to 1st Division team FC Fredericia in midweek cup match, despite fielding a very strong team. Now they have another match so shortly after a tough defeat, and it will be interesting to see if they can rebound. They have a fairly strong attack, although creative force Rasmus Falk seems to have peaked a few weeks ago (still leads league with 5 assists). Defensively, they are fairly bad and their new-signed goalkeeper Ukrainian Koval does not seem all too safe.

It is a match between a team that tend to struggle when having to dominate and a team that struggles with current form and a poor defence. It is difficult to price. Early market had some value in SønderjyskE, but current odds seem fairly low to be attractive. Actually, I think a bet on OB is the most interesting given the current odds.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.975 at Bet365

Viborg-AaB preview

Friday 25/9 20.00

Viborg (11th) have had a rather poor start to the season. The main problem is their inability to score. Things are not made easier by missing team top goalscorer from last season, Serge Deble, with a ban. Apart from set pieces, it is really difficult to see how Viborg should score. They are a fine team defensively, but nothing extraordinary. AaB (5th) played a brilliant match against Brøndby (4-1 win). It was nice to see Jakob Ahlmann back in action after more than a years absence. He really brought something offensively with his dynamic runs. AaB looked really good on the ball, and it just shows that when they have a full team to choose from, they are a really strong team. Their performance was reminiscent of what they showed when they one the title two seasons ago.

Viborg are without their best offensive players, against AaB in strongest formation and with high morale. This looks like an away win and the price is really nice.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 1.875 at Bet365

Brøndby-FC Copenhagen preview

Sunday 27/9 13.30

Brøndby (8th) have had their ups and downs this season. Last weekend was surely one of the low points as Brøndby were took a 4-1 beating in Aalborg. Brøndby are difficult to assess as they sometimes play great football, while other days they are abysmal. Brøndby have some decent players, but if anything they lack an excellent player that can decide matches by himself. On the positive side is the good squad situation. Brøndby are without important injuries, and even influential midfielder Thomas Kahlenberg returns after a long injury period. FC Copenhagen (1st) are experiencing a good period after a poor start to the season. They have won the last three games (all home games though) in fine fashion. They probably still need something in the offensive build up, where they could be better at creating chances. Defensively, they are very solid and have a good organisation with some defensive minded central midfielders. FC Copenhagen also have a good injury status.

Brøndby were priced around 2.60-2.70 when markets closed for their last home match against FC Midtjylland who is close to the level of FC Copenhagen (perhaps just a bit lower). Now Brøndby are priced at more than odds 3.30. Nevertheless, I have the feeling that FC Copenhagen will probably prove superior to Brøndby here. They should have the physique to dominate the match, and I think Brøndby will have problems scoring. I go for FC Copenhagen here, but value is sparse.

Idea: 2 - 2.28 at Nordicbet

Randers-FC Midtjylland preview

Sunday 27/9 16.00

Randers (3rd) are playing fine football. They are strong in all lines and play with big physique and determination. They are not among the most spectacular teams in the league, but they are difficult to beat and have some efficient (Swedish) strikers. They struggled a bit with some injuries at the start of the season, but they are now able to field the strongest formation. FC Midtjylland (2nd) have had a fine start to the season and they will be the team to battle with FC Copenhagen for the league title. They seemed to suffer from a tight schedule in the last match against FC Nordsjælland (0-1), but after a week without matches they should field the strongest formation in a fit condition here. They played a cup match in midweek, but used entirely reserves (and won). On the negative side are a few injuries for some of the regulars, who will be doubtful (Petter Andersson, Erik Sviatchenko and Kristian Bach Bak).

It will probably be a fairly even match. Randers will try to make the match physical and intense, while FC Midtjylland will try to take control of the match and challenge Randers through the flanks. Although Randers surely have good chances of disrupting FC Midtjyllands title race, I have difficulties making them favourites here. Idea pick on FC Midtjylland, but with draw insurance as this is also a very likely result given the strength of the two defences.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.025 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-AGF preview

Sunday 27/9 18.00

FC Nordsjælland (7th) took an impressive win away against FC Midtjylland last weekend (1-0). The goal was a stunner, scored by Brazilian star Bruninho. Bruninho has really had a major influence on this FC Nordsjælland team. He has scored 7 goals in 7 matches (out of 9 for the FC Nordsjælland in total!) and leads the league in most goals. He is, to me, the most important individual for a team in the league as he creates many of the goals all on his own. Sadly for FC Nordsjælland, he is banned here. The likely replacement, Ingvartsen, is a young and fairly unproven player and surely far from the quality of Bruninho. Things are not made easier by offensive midfielder Emiliano Marcondes missing the match due to ban and first choice wingers Joshua John and David Moberg-Karlsson both doubtful with injuries. So a very weakened attack. Defensively, they have looked okay in recent matches, and they will try to find comfort in that and their usual strong home record. AGF (9th) have not won in six league matches, despite playing fairly good in some of the matches. They got a morale boost by winning a cup match in midweek, and they will look to build upon that here. Only expected absence is winger Stephan Petersen, so AGF can field a strong team. Their usual weakness is the defence, but with the expected attack of FC Nordsjælland they will probably not be challenged as much as usual. Offensively, they should get they should be able to produce a good number of chances. I think AGF are a bit underrated and stats concur, they rank 4th in terms of SoTR (Shots on Target Ratio).

The absence of Bruninho means a lot. It is really difficult to see how FC Nordsjælland are to score here, especially if John and Moberg-Karlsson also miss the match. AGF have a fairly solid team and they should have good chances of a win here. I expect this match to be very even, and therefore the price for the away win is way too high. I go for the straight win here, but if you want to be more conservative X2 at 1.80 at Bet365 is also nice value.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 3.55 at Danske Spil