FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg preview

Sunday 16/8 13.30

FC Nordsjælland (10th) took an unexpected point at FC Copenhagen. However, given the circumstances (playing 11 against 9 at the end) they should probably have gone for more, but confidence is clearly not on top yet. However, they have earned points in the last two matches and they have improved the quality of their play remarkably. The addition of Brazilian striker Bruninho has really helped. Bruninho has some great abilities: strong, technical and great finisher. A real quality signing that will earn FC Nordsjælland several extra points this season. He has scored in the past two matches and he will look for a hattrick here. FC Nordsjælland are a strong home team at own artificial turf. Esbjerg (12th) took a beating at home to SønderjyskE (0-4) as we predicted with last weeks Tip of the Week. This has led to the departure of head coach Niels Frederiksen. I have my doubts with the temporary replacement Michael Pedersen (former assistant) who is not known for his tactical abilities, but more for being the nice guy in the locker room. This is probably not what Esbjerg need in a situation where some radical tactical changes are needed to protect a terrible defence. All four goals conceded last weekend could be blamed on poor defending.  Esbjerg were forced to use a winger on the right back position last weekend and could be forced to do the same here. Offensively, they are strong though, so they should be able to threaten FC Nordsjælland if they have any confidence left.

The situation is not looking good for Esbjerg at the moment. It is difficult to see how they will cope with attacking forces of Bruninho and Joshua John. FC Nordsjælland should be able to dominate this match and take advantage of the miserable state of Esbjerg.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.40 at Sportingbet

Viborg-Brøndby preview

Sunday 16/8 16.00

Viborg (6th) are very difficult to beat. They are strong at the back and incredibly hard working in order to compensate for lacking technical skills. They are not just a hard working team though, they also have the speedy Serge Deble in the attack and he should be able to threaten all opposing defences with his speed. Over the course of the season, we should expect to see most Viborg goals coming from Deble or set pieces. Brøndby (11th) got their first point of the season after a impressive comeback in Randers (3-3). The match probed that Brøndby are on the right track. Their attack started to work better, but the defence is a liability. I am not all that impressed by new goalkeeper Frederik Rønnow, who did not convince the last time he was given the chance in the Superliga (for Esbjerg). On the positive side, central defender Daniel Agger is soon returning, which will be a major improvement to the backline. This match might be just a bit too early though.

What will win? Technique or physique? Brøndby are a better football team and experiencing an improvement in form, so they should be favourites here surely. However, Viborg are very difficult to beat (did not lose a single match at home in the 1st Division last season) due to their attitude and hard work. If they can obtain some set piece situations, Brøndby could get some severe problems. I believe Brøndby are a bit overrated here.

Idea: 1 – 3.60 at Unibet

OB-Randers preview

Sunday 16/8 18.00

OB (3rd) have had a good start to the season with some good results, that have made fans and media very positive. It is especially OB’s strong attacking production with the likes of Rasmus Falk and Rasmus Festersen that has impressed. The problem is the defence, which is quite weak, and the situation in the goal is not good either. 1st choice goalkeeper Michael Falkesgaard left last match with a serious injury and OB will need to find a new keeper fast or led youngster Casper Radza get his first start. OB seem a bit overrated; they have actually only been the better team in one match this season (home match against Hobro). Randers (7th) have been uncharacteristically poor in defending which has probably left them 5 points shorter than what they should have been. They should have earned more since they have looked fairly good in all three matches and really been strong offensively with in-form Viktor Lundberg as the standout player. Last seasons top goalscorer, Mikael Ishak, returns from injury, while midfielders Mustafa Amini and Kasper Fisker are still banned.

OB have earned a lot of goodwill from the locals and will probably get good support here. However, Randers look like a much more complete team without as obvious weaknesses as OB. This could be a even match, and if we were to pick a winner, it would be Randers.

Idea: 2 – 2.85 at Unibet

SønderjyskE-Hobro preview

Monday 17/8 19.00

SønderjyskE (5th) have been playing really well so far. They are a typical counter-attacking team, so they have profited from meeting two of the big clubs at home and two of the weaker teams away. This is the kind of matches that really suits SønderjyskE. However, matches like this, against a defensive opponent on own soil is really difficult for SønderjyskE, who lack the players to dominate the match with a nice passing game. They are mostly a team of strong spoilers. Striker Thomas Dalgaard and defender Marc Pedersen are both doubtful with minor injuries. Hobro (9th) look somewhat weaker than last season and without the injured striker Quincy Antipas they really lack some offensive firepower. They are in severe danger of being relegated this season, but they have great team spirit and a good defensive base, which will give them points throughout the season. Hobro will arrive to this match with the aim of just obtaining one point and they will try to defend their way to it.

SønderjyskE are really poor in taking charge of matches, which might explain why they only won 2 matches at home last season. This is one of the really difficult matches for SønderjyskE, and you can wonder who they will breakdown this Hobro defence if Hobro just play conservative. SønderjyskE are in our opinion too big favourites here.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.075 at Bet365

Week 4 round-up

Another fine round! The success was mostly based on a good result for our Tip of the Week which was a success at 3.70. It is nice to finally witness the Tip of the Week being successful after a terrible season. However, this season has started excellently with all 4 Tip of the Week bets heading home. The weekend was less successful for the remaining picks. We picked the right side in OB-AGF, but got punished by gambling for the AGF win. Viborg had the lead against Hobro until minute 80 (money back), while Randers managed to drop a 3-1 lead late in the game. Finally, our recommendation for FC Copenhagen win failed due to an early red card plus an injury which left FC Copenhagen down to 9 men for the last 30 minutes. So it's very satisfying to get a positive return in a weekend, where the marginals have been mostly against us.

OB-AGF

Friday 7/8 18.00

OB (4th) took a tough blow by losing 1-0 at FC Midtjylland due to a very late goal. OB were better than expected defensively, but offensively they struggled against the solid FC Midtjylland defence. This is in opposition to the overall impression of OB. They have one of the most talented attacks with Emil Larsen, Rasmus Festersen and Rasmus Falk. However, the remainder of the squad is nothing more than average. OB are best when they are allowed to counter-attack, but at home they are often forced forward, which also might be a partial explanation for their poor home record last season (5-3-9). AGF (2nd) have been lucky and very efficient. This is the only reason for their current position. Last weekend against Randers, they were outplayed until they were awarded a non-existing penalty and Randers got a red card. AGF are a fairly average side. They have some experienced and technically strong midfielders, but they lack some breakthrough strength with winger Stephen Petersen being the only player with speed. The defence is not so strong, although it will look to benefit from the return of Piscu from a ban.

OB have received a lot of credit for their start to the season. Some of it is fair, but most is based on the great reputation of new OB head coach Kent Nielsen. In reality, OB are an average team with some quality offensive players. AGF are also an average team consisting of experienced players. They are not beaten that easily and they are not forced to attack here. OB should be favourites, but we don’t see them winning this more often than not. We are going for gold here as Unibet are offering too much for the away win.

Recommendation:  2 – 4.70 at Unibet