Week 33 round-up

Season is over. It was a season with ups and downs, we peaked by having ten consecutive rounds with surplus, but 2015 has been one big disappointment with a ROI of only 90%. We are sorry for this poor record, but it has been a difficult period, where we have often felt unlucky. However, most of our picks experience odds drops, which is a positive sign.

The results in the last round was decent. Our Tip of the Week had some success after a terrible season. This is a big puzzle, and we can only improve the performance next season. We also updated the long-term #Twitbets, which was quite successful.

Here is the list of long-term Twitbets:
4/7 2014: To concede most goals: Hobro - 2.00 at Bet25 LOSS
25/8 2014: Winner: FC Midtjylland - 3.25 at Unibet WIN
25/8 2014: Leader at winter break: FC Midtjylland - 2.25 at Bet25 WIN (already recorded in stats at winter break)
25/8 2014: To relegate: Hobro - 2.55 at Danske Spil LOSS
25/8 2014: League top goalscorer: Pusic/Cornelius - 4.39 at Unibet WIN
3/11 2014: Hobro to concede 46 goals or more - 2.35 at Bet25 WIN
22/12 2014: SønderjyskE to total less than 16.5 draws in the season - 3.80 at Bet25 WIN
31/12 2014: To relegate: FC Vestsjælland - 2.00 at Bet365 WIN

All there is left is to wish you a good summer. See you next month! And please do provide feedback on our work - it makes it all a bit more interesting!

 

FC Midtjylland-SønderjyskE preview

Sunday 7/6 16.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) will celebrate their first ever league title in front of a full stadium. They will do without some starters, where the most recent absence is winger Rilwan Hassan. In Hassan’s absence Sisto could get a chance on the right wing. FC Midtjylland should, despite of the absences, be able to field a fairly strong team. The most motivated player on the pitch is striker Martin Pusic, who can take the league top goalscorer title, which would be great for the ambitious Austrian. Captain and right back Kristian Bach Bak is back in the squad and could return to the starting line-up. SønderjyskE (10th) have nothing specific to play for, but want to spoil the party for FC Midtjylland. They will do that without several absences in the midfield. Adama Guira is injured, while Nicolaj Madsen and Daniel Jensen are banned. The end result is a weakened midfield, where veteran Henrik Hansen will get a rare start with normal right back Baldur Sigurdsson. SønderjyskE will also be without left back Erik Marxen, which is problematic since FC Midtjylland have some strong wingers. No matter who SønderjyskE use instead, he will get a tough task. Offensively, SønderjyskE have some good weapons in Marvin Pourie and Silas Songani, who should be able to create some chances on counter-attacks.

It all depends on the motivation on FC Midtjylland. If they have it, they can destroy SønderjyskE here. This has however not been the case in the last couple of matches, where FC Midtjylland have looked more human. However, the should be eager to prove something in front of own fans here in the last match, and the options are good with the SønderjyskE absences.

Idea: 2 (AH -1.5) – 2.17 at Betfair

Brøndby-Esbjerg preview

Sunday 7/6 16.00

Brøndby (3rd) have been playing very well in 2015. They have not lost in the last seven matches and they are playing with great confidence. This is not made worse by the return of talismanic central defender Daniel Agger from a ban. Only new injury concern is strong winger, Ferhan Hasani, but Brøndby have a solid replacement in Alexander Szymanowski. Brøndby head coach Thomas Frank has said that he expect his team to come out with force to give a full stadium a nice experience. We should expect Brøndby in the strongest line-up here. Esbjerg (9th) survived with an intense 2-1 win against FC Vestsjælland last weekend. Esbjerg have not played particularly well recently, perhaps due to the high stakes. Now they can play without pressure, which potentially improves their game or make them too relaxed. Head coach Niels Frederiksen will be making changes for this match. Strong left back Jonas Knudsen is out with a minor injury, forcing Esbjerg to use a central defender on the back position. Furthermore, speedy striker Daniel Larsson will be benched since he is not staying at the club. He would have been a good weapon here. Instead, Robin Söder will start in attack, but he has been playing without confidence all season. Speedy winger Kevin Mensah is set to replace Emil Lyng, which should be a fairly even swap.

Brøndby should be more motivated for the match, and with Esbjerg resting some players it looks like a clear home win. We should expect to see an intense match with two teams who want to push forward, but anything else than a home win would surprise.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.75 at Tipico

AaB-FC Nordsjælland preview

Sunday 7/6 16.00

This is the match for 5th place, but this does not give Europa League participation. AaB (5th) look to finish the season in a good way. It is also the last match in charge for Kent Nielsen who is a hero in Aalborg after the title win last season. AaB have been looking strong lately. They have been good at creating chances offensively and their midfield has looked a bit like last season: a force. They rank 2nd based on SoTR in the last six matches (57%). AaB will have to do without their normal central defence, but the young duo of Jakob Blåbjerg and Kasper Pedersen have done fine when given the chance. FC Nordsjælland (6th) need a win here to overtake the 5th place. FC Nordsjælland have managed to get to wins in a row and looked solid in the process. But it was home games, and FC Nordsjælland are much weaker away from own artificial turf. Right back Mario Ticinovic is out. He will be replaced by Adam Arnarson who is not at the same level, so FC Nordsjælland look rather weak on the right back position. FC Nordsjælland have no other injuries and look strong offensively, where especially Emiliano Marcondes has looked in good shape (scored in last four matches).

AaB would love to end the season with a solid result for Kent Nielsen. They have the offensive quality to put pressure on FC Nordsjælland who tend to struggle away from home. It is true that AaB could be fragile against counter-attacks, but with Würtz on the central midfield they have a player who is great at securing the balance of the team, so AaB do not get into critical situations. AaB should be worth a shot; it is no coincidence that FC Nordsjælland have lost four away games in a row.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.95 at Bet365

FC Vestsjælland-Silkeborg preview

Sunday 7/6 16.00

FC Vestsjælland (11th) suffered a cruel faith by being relegated after losing 2-1 in Esbjerg in a fairly even match. FC Vestsjælland will try to find some motivation for this match, but it will be difficult after the disappointment in Esbjerg. FC Vestsjælland will be without four suspended players. Three of these are defenders. FC Vestsjælland have good squad depth, but this seems like a big burden. Especially if strong left back Michael Lumb is out. He is doubtful. Captain and central midfielder Henrik Madsen is also doubtful. FC Vestsjælland risk being without a half team, but offensively they have their best players available. Silkeborg (12th) have had a poor mind-set after the degradation to the 1st Division. They have played poorly and a league low SoTR over the last six matches of 29% show how bad they have been. For this match, they will try to find some motivation in taking this as a test match ahead of next season. Silkeborg will be without captain and central defender Thorbjørn Holst and strong left back Nicolaj Ritter. Offensively they have their best players available, and we especially look forward to see Emil Scheel in action. He could have good conditions given the many defensive absences for FC Vestsjælland.

It is a tragic match really between two teams that are already relegated. FC Vestsjælland have a slightly stronger team despite of the many absences, but the decisive thing will be motivation. Therefore, we would rather pick Silkeborg in a match that really could go either way.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.05 at Bet365

OB-Randers preview

Sunday 7/6 16.00

OB (8th) have nothing specific to play for. The most motivated is probably head coach Ove Pedersen who is without a job after the summer break. OB will be without the energetic midfielder Mikkel Desler who has made a breakthrough in 2015. He has a huge work rate and is solid defensively and contributing offensively. Midfielder Azer Busuladzic returns from a ban. Pedersen might change the formation a bit to let some of the players leaving get a chance to say bye. OB should be able to field a solid team, but they tend to struggle when playing at home. They are more suited for away games, where they can counter-attack. Randers (4th) are certain to get the 4th place. Nevertheless, head coach Colin Todd has explicitly talked about the importance of this match. Todd is a conservative type and he will want to see a 100% effort from his players every time. Therefore we should not expect to see a too relaxed Randers team. Randers will be without strong midfielder Elmar Bjarnason. This absence could open up for the skilled creative midfielder Kasper Fisker, so not necessarily a weakening. Randers will enter this match with a physical approach and try to dominate OB.

OB are made favourites by the bookmakers. We don’t understand that. Randers have a stronger team, and with Todd as head coach, they are likely to take this match more serious than OB. Randers should be worth a bet here. Since it is a match without importance for the standing you cannot rule out a draw, so we take it as a draw no bet.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.18 at Betfair

FC Copenhagen-Hobro preview

Sunday 7/6 16.00

FC Copenhagen (2nd) have nothing to play for except dignity. They lost 0-3 to Hobro at home earlier this season, and they should be motivated to take revenge here. The outset is not very good. Almost all offensive players in the squad are absent with injuries, including the very influential Nicolai Jørgensen. Striker Steve de Ridder who has been among the better offensive players lately is also absent, since he is making a move to Belgium club Zulte Waregem. The end result is a FC Copenhagen team with only one true striker, Bjørn Sigurdarson, and only one true winger, Rurik Gislason. The rest are defensive minded players. On a positive note, the situation is looking good in the defence, which is also the reason why FC Copenhagen have conceded the fewest goals in the league (22). Hobro (7th) can potentially reach a top half finish. This will be the motivation for them here. However, the outset is also not very good due to the injuries to key players Quincy Antipas (striker) and Jonas Damborg (defensive midfielder). Antipas creates a lot of space offensively, while Damborg is important in protecting the defence. Strong central defender Mads Justesen returns from a ban. Hobro are not in good form at the moment, and they hold a SoTR of only 34% over the past six matches.

Two teams in a poor situation and also have some offensive issues. This will probably be a slim win for FC Copenhagen. FC Copenhagen have won five out of the last six matches with just one goal. At odds 4.00 this would certainly be worth a try. Given their offensive issues it is unlikely that they give Hobro a beating, and FC Copenhagen tend to be very focused on closing down the opponent once a lead is taken.

Idea: X (0-1) – 4.00 at Bet365