Viborg-SønderjyskE

Saturday 30/11 17.00

38 seconds and Viborg (7th) had already lost the match in Copenhagen (ended 4-1). Viborg have now lost three matches in a row and in our logic it had to happen. Our stats review has picked Viborg as the weakest club in the Superliga based on SoTR (38%). Viborg are simply getting dominated in their matches and the only reason for their good position is their efficiency. Viborg’s saving efficiency (75% - league average 72%) and especially scoring efficiency (39% - league average 28%) is impressive. Thomas Dalgaard is the league top scorer with eleven goals and without him Viborg would have been in dire straits. But as we have pointed out several times, we do not believe that such a difference between Viborg’s efficiency and the league average can go on for long. Luck has been a factor and Viborg and Dalgaard will move towards a more human efficiency rate (and sink towards the league bottom if they do not begin creating more chances). Viborg will benefit from the return of captain and left back Christopher Poulsen and midfielder Aleksandar Stankov. Important offensive midfielder Kevin Mensah is doubtful. If there is any team at the level of Viborg it is SønderjyskE (12th). SønderjyskE have a SoTR of 42%, but in opposition to Viborg they have been unlucky/inefficient and therefore in a grim position. A scoring percentage of 21% and a saving percentage of 67% is the league’s worst combination. SønderjyskE have been lacking a striker, but an experiment with winger Johan Absalonsen in front proved vital in SønderjyskE’s win last weekend (their first after six losses in a row). Absalonsen were an eternal threat with his speed and dribbling skills. He made the difference by obtaining the penalty that led to a red card to Esbjerg and the deciding 1-0 goal. The level of play did not convince us though. After a decent first half, SønderjyskE were too nervous in the second part despite being one man more. We are not convinced that they have improved even though they won a match. SønderjyskE will be without their right wing Daniel Christensen, while captain and midfielder Henrik Hansen returns from suspension.

It is a very even affair, but Viborg are a good home team, while SønderjyskE are a very poor away team. In the last four away games SønderjyskE have lost by 11-2 and been nowhere near any points. The match could easily end in a draw, but if anyone is to take the three points we believe that it is Viborg. Plus: they are so damn lucky…

Recommendation: 1 (DNB) – 1.73 Unibet