Week 16 Superliga previews

Esbjerg-AaB

Friday 4/11 18.00

Esbjerg are looking very fragile at the moment. They played a decent first half in the last round, but then lost 5-0 in second half to AGF. The loss was mostly due to stupid defensive mistakes, including two big mistakes by the goalkeeper. Head coach has reacted by benching goalkeeper Højbjerg for Jonas Jensen. Jensen has limited experience for this level, so it will be interesting to see if he will improve the defensive stability. Esbjerg is also set to bench central defender Nordvik, who I believe to be one of the better defenders in the squad, while central midfielder Jørgensen is set to replace Nielsen. I don’t like the outlook of Esbjerg’s likely central midfield with Jørgensen and Palsson, as I see them as too similar and not complementing each other. Esbjerg also got hammered the last time the two got the chance in the central midfield (3-1 at FC Nordsjælland). Offensively, Esbjerg will find some optimism in seeing main striker Hvilsom scoring in the last round, while winger Mabil is looking like a great weapon on the flanks. AaB have been playing some decent matches recently, but they have been rather unlucky and inefficient. They lack a good finisher and they will hope that the returning Enevoldsen could be the solution. Enevoldsen was quite dangerous last season, but has not been at his best this season, and he probably won’t be at his best here either. Other striker alternative Pohl is injured and the same is the case for regular winger Meilinger. However, he is likely to be replaced by Flores who returns from injury. Overall, AaB look decent in the defensive parts, but perhaps lack some quality and consistency in the offensive positions.

Esbjerg are low on confidence and making several changes for this match – some which I don’t like. AaB have some offensive issues, although the form is looking okay despite the lack of points recently. I just can’t see how things should turn out well for Esbjerg with the expected changes. I would cautiously back AaB if anything here.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.66 at SBOBet

AGF-Silkeborg

Friday 4/11 20.15

AGF found confidence in a 6-2 win against a terrible Esbjerg side. It was AGF’s first league win in seven games, so they are not exactly in top form, but maybe the big win can mark a turning point. I don’t think they were particularly good against Esbjerg (see xG map on Twitter). They were just efficient combined with Esbjerg practically giving away goals through major mistakes. AGF have some defensive issues, they are giving away too many chances – and conceding way too easily due to poor keeping. AGF will hope that key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen will return to action here, he was on the bench in the entire last match, and my guess is that he will not be ready for full-time action just yet. Silkeborg started the season terrible, but have really got into form. They have just lost one of the last eight matches (against FC Copenhagen away so that is fair). They were a bit stronger than OB in last weekend’s match but failed to capitalize (1-1). Silkeborg have a good squad situation and they are able to consistently field the same line-up. They also have some offensive players in good form and the defence is starting to look stronger, although this is a clear weak point.

AGF are a bit stronger in my eyes, but Silkeborg are very consistent at the moment. I can’t see why a team winning once in seven matches versus a team that have only lost one match in the last eight matches deserve to be more than 50% favourites. I actually believe this to be value down to 1.85, so enough value to be the Tip of the Week. Whether Morten Duncan Rasmussen is fit to play can move the percentages a bit, but in any case good value in Silkeborg to take points here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.08 at SBOBet

Randers-FC Nordsjælland

Saturday 5/11 16.00

I think Randers are looking fairly solid at the moment. They have only conceded once in the last three games and their front line is one of the most dangerous in the league with two great strikers in Ishak and Pourie. Randers like to play physical matches, so the heavy pitches of this time of the year should favour them. Randers are ranked 4th in the league (behind the “big 3”) based on shots on target ratio, and I think this it is a fair valuation of their current strength. No important absences expected. FC Nordsjælland are a team with several technically gifted players. They tend to be significantly weaker away from home (artificial pitch) and a heavy pitch should not favour their style of play. They are team that also could struggle against a physical opponent, so this is not a good match-up on paper. FC Nordsjælland have been in decent form in the league recently, but they underperformed a bit in the weekend despite winning, while they were knocked out by a 2nd tier club in the cup this Wednesday. This was very disappointing as FC Nordsjælland fielded close to the strongest team, but it also comes to prove that FC Nordsjælland away from home at this time of the year is not the best. They do however have a good squad situation with some regulars starting to come back to full fitness (Petry and Mtiliga), while striker Ingvartsen has had a really good period.

Randers have beaten FC Nordsjælland in the last three home matches with a total score of 6-0. It is a match that really favours Randers, as it is expected to be cold and rain all day Saturday. Furthermore, I see FC Nordsjælland midweek defeat in the cup as a negative influence that could affect the young team negatively. Value down to 1.80.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.90 at Unibet

OB-Lyngby

Sunday 6/11 12.00

OB are on a terrible run. They were expected to be a top 6 team, but they have only won once in the last ten matches. Sure, they had some unlucky matches at the start of the season, but since they have not played particularly well. They got one point last weekend and they will hope to make that a turning point. The squad situation is also improving with OB having both of their important strikers, Jacobsen and Festersen, back from injuries. For this match, central midfielder Makrini returns from ban and he is an important player for the balance of the team. I think OB have potential, but it is just a matter of making it work well. I have them as the unluckiest team in the league, but this is mainly due to their unlucky start to the season – since they have started to perform poorly in general. Lyngby got down to earth after a deserved 2-0 loss to Randers. I don’t think the performance was so bad from Lyngby, but their luck just ran out. I have claimed them to be luckiest side in some time, but I actually think that they have started to improve their chance production and not just taking points through luck.

Lyngby are 13 points ahead of OB in the table. In reality, they should be way more even. I think OB will improve in the games ahead of us, but I don’t think it is enough to make them 42% favourite against a confident Lyngby-side.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.91 at Unibet

Horsens-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 6/11 14.00

Horsens were beaten by SønderjyskE in the last round, but they actually did better than I expected. I don’t think they were particularly worse than SønderjyskE, but they just failed to score on their big chances. This match looks a bit difficult for the promoted side. They have defensive issues as strong central defender Henry left the last match with a serious injury. Captain Nielsen who has played in the central midfield recently is the usual back-up for the central defence, but he is banned here. This means that Horsens will probably have to use someone unfamiliar to the position or a player completely out of form (Berthelsen). This is particularly concerning as it has been Horsens defensive foundation that have been essential in their excellent season so far. However, I want to add that Horsens have been quite lucky in many matches this season and I expect them to lose more matches in the rest of the season. FC Midtjylland are very instable. I also think they are poorly coached, and they lack consistency in the players selected. However, they have the second best squad in the league, so they do win most of their matches anyway. Their performance has been enough to rank them 3rd in the table and in my stats ranking. They have quality players all over the pitch and a good squad depth, so despite of injuries for Wikheim and Bruninho they should be able to line-up strongly.

Horsens have some concerning defensive absences here. I think they will find it difficult to get something from this. FC Midtjylland should win this, but they are often their own worst enemy. Price is too low for a recommendation.

Idea: 2 – 1.70 at Tipico

Viborg-Brøndby

Sunday 6/11 16.00

Viborg are in poor form. They have lost the last three league matches and just got knocked out of the cup on Wednesday after losing to a 2nd tier club after fielding the strongest line-up. Viborg will try to find some confidence in the fact that Brøndby are actually the last team they beat (almost 2 months ago). Viborg have struggled with injuries for key players. Lately talismanic striker Deble has been out, but rumours suggest that he could return here. This would be vital as I think Viborg are just too easy to read without his offensive flair and speed. Viborg has also had to make changes in midfield and defence where they are constantly hit by new injuries. The lack of consistency has surely affected the team and you could also question their squad depth. Brøndby have not lived their best period of the season lately, but despite of this they are without a loss in the last five league games. They welcomed back some players in the last match and they also looked a bit stronger. They will try to build on this for this match, and they should be able to field the strongest side here. I have Brøndby as the 2nd best team in the league this season, and despite their recent dip in performance, I still have them ranked highly.

Viborg have won the last two matches against Brøndby, and although Viborg did well in those matches, I would not put too much into it, as Viborg is in a poor state at the moment and not able to field the strongest eleven. I expect Brøndby to win this, but the uncertainty regarding the return of Deble makes it an idea pick. If Deble is out, I think it is fine value though.

Idea: 2 – 1.75 at Tipico

FC Copenhagen-SønderjyskE

Sunday 6/11 18.00

FC Copenhagen have been so strong this season. They are yet to lose a match in the league and they have only lost one Champions League match away to Leicester. I am certain that they will go on to win the Danish league this season. They are 14-1-0 at home in the league in 2016 and they have won nine of these matches with two goals or more (six out seven this season). FC Copenhagen might rotate a bit after playing Champions League on Wednesday, but this should not be a big problem due to an impressive squad depth and no injury concerns. Nevertheless, I think they have looked a bit unfocused in the matches after Champions League rounds during this season. Central midfielder Kvist is out due to ban. SønderjyskE have won five out of the last six league games and seem to be in form after a poor start to the season. They have a strong defence and are good at countering. However, this is set to be a very difficult match for them due to a number of absences. Vital defensive midfielder Drachmann and strong central midfielder Madsen are out with bans, while quality winger Kroon and his alternative Kløve are expected to be out with injuries. This leaves SønderjyskE’s central midfield very lightweight, and I can’t see how they can solve the issues in the central midfield in a good way with the alternatives at hand.

I think FC Copenhagen will win this comfortably, but I don’t see them smashing SønderjyskE. They arrive from a tough Champions League match, the pitch is poor and they are strong at the back. All three things favour a low scoring match, so that is a good idea for the match. I think FC Copenhagen will continue working hard until they have a two-goal lead, so I still think a handicap win could be a good choice. And yes, if I had to pick the correct score it would be 2-0.  

Ideas: Under 3 goals – 1.77 at Pinnacle

1 (AH -1.5) – 1.96 at Unibet

Week 15 Superliga previews

Silkeborg-OB

Friday 28/10 18.00

Silkeborg are in great form at the moment and just had a nice 3-1 win in Viborg. They were efficient, but they are starting to produce more offensively, while looking a bit better at the back, although I regard them as quite fragile. Only injury is rotation midfielder Agger, so the situation is quite good. OB are in terrible shape, having only won 1 out of the last 9 league games. OB have had some pretty poor matches and they have also underperformed significantly compared to expectations. However, it is also important to acknowledge that OB have been really unlucky. I currently have them ranked as the most unlucky team in the league. The main problem is offensive inefficiency, quite surprising given that they have one of the best finishers in striker Jacobsen. OB have had 122 shots from the penalty box and only managed to score 9 times. Under normal circumstances, you would expect that to yield 19 goals. Just consider how much 10 additional goals would have moved them in the league table. I am pretty sure we would not be talking about a crisis. OB will be without strong central midfielder Makrini who is banned. He is usually very important for OB, so a big loss. Rotation midfielder Greve is also out, but regular attacker Festersen is set to return from injury.

Silkeborg are having some momentum at the moment, while OB are suffering. However, I am still a bit sceptical regarding Silkeborg. Are they really as good as the recent matches suggest? Remember, they were number one candidate for relegation just a few weeks ago. OB have a stronger squad, but have been very unlucky. Confidence is important in football, but I would back OB here. I think they are better than Silkeborg and they won’t be unlucky forever.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.10 at Unibet

FC Nordsjælland-Viborg

Friday 28/10 20.15

FC Nordsjælland have had a good period recently, although they were very lucky to leave Aalborg with one point last weekend as they were under heavy pressure. Not new scenarios for FC Nordsjælland, as they always tend to be significantly weaker away than at home. I think the artificial home pitch makes a huge difference and gives them a stronger home advantage than most other teams. FC Nordsjælland have a very young squad, so it is natural that they will be a bit inconsistent in performances. However, it looks like young striker Ingvartsen who has scored 8 goals in 14 matches, is quite difficult to control at the moment. Furthermore, FC Nordsjælland have called up veterans Mtiliga and Mikkelsen that both returns from injury breaks. Regular right back Bartolec misses the match with injury. Viborg have had a terrible run. They are without a win in 5 matches and they have generally looked poor since losing winger Thychosen to injury 9 games ago. My thesis is that Viborg suffer when they don’t have four serious offensive threats (the three fit ones: Deble, Park and Kamper) as it is too easy for the opponents to contain otherwise. Defensively, Viborg also have some issues. They just conceded three goals against Silkeborg on home turf, and left back Thorsen left the match injured. He is doubtful here, and the same is the case for central midfielder Keller. The issue on the central midfield is extra concerning given that central midfielder Fochive is banned. Should Keller and Thorsen miss out, I think Viborg look very fragile as their squad depth is already under heavy pressure due to many injuries (they have even called up two U19 and one U17 player). So due to the strong home field, better form and brighter squad situation, I think FC Nordsjælland are worth a shot here. Value down to 2.00.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.09 at SBOBet

Lyngby-Randers

Saturday 29/10 16.00

Lyngby have really done well this season. They have won the last four home matches without even conceding, even against some really good opponents. I have mentioned several times that I think they have been really lucky. They have been super-efficient and managed to score on a lot of long-range efforts, which is not a solid foundation for long-term success. Nevertheless, you cannot disregard that confidence makes teams grow, and this seems to be happening to Lyngby. They were better than expected against SønderjyskE last weekend, and the squad situation is really good without important absences. Randers lost the first away match season to Horsens last weekend in a match, they probably should have won, but they were inefficient. Randers have a solid looking squad with a strong attack and their current 5th position seem fair compared to their underlying stats.

I have been backing Lyngby’s opponent several times lately without success. I am not going to do to that here. Lyngby looked strong in the last home match and they have a lot of confidence. Randers are a solid side, and perhaps to be slim favourites here, but I think value is shifting towards Lyngby. 

Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.77 at Pinnacle

SønderjyskE-Horsens

Sunday 30/10 13.00

SønderjyskE had won five in a row until the streak ended in Lyngby with a 2-0 loss last weekend. SønderjyskE have been looking quite strong, although the last match was rather poor. However, SønderjyskE were without some quality players and some of them should return here: winger Absalonsen and right back Pedersen. They will probably still be without winger Kroon, but apart from this, they should be able to field the strongest team. Horsens have had an outstanding season. They have won some tight matches and managed to get many draws. They are very compact and don’t want the ball. They play very direct and rely on set pieces too. They have been the most efficient team in the league in front of goal, and I don’t think they can continue to rely so much on good finishing. I have them ranked as the second luckiest side in the season. However, they are field with confidence at the moment, so they might be playing a bit better than their actual quality.

SønderjyskE are a stronger side, but Horsens have a lot of confidence at the moment. Furthermore, SønderjyskE are a team that often suffer when having to dictate the match – they prefer matches where they have space to counter, which probably won’t be the case here. However, should SønderjyskE take the lead, it could be difficult for Horsens to get back. No bet for me at current odds, but if you forced me, I would pick Horsens.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.94 at Pinnacle

Brøndby-AaB
Sunday 30/10 16.00

Brøndby have lost power lately. They have not been as dominant in the last matches, and the head coach have also said that some players are starting to look tired. Brøndby are practicing a demanding high-pressure strategy – it worked excellently at the start of the season, but it seem to have taken its toll. Brøndby rested some of the key players in the last match as they had underperformed for a period. I expect them to return here and it will be interesting to see if they can find the level that made them so strong at the start of the season. No information about important absences. AaB are on a poor run if you look at the results – only one win in the last seven matches. However, I notice that they have delivered improving performances lately. They should have won last weekend against FC Nordsjælland where they hit the cross bar three times. They have also seemed quite strong away against the league’s better opponents. They are the only team to take a point away against FC Copenhagen, while they also deserved a point against FC Midtjylland two weeks ago, where FC Midtjylland won due to being quite efficient. AaB continue to have some injury issues – winger Flores and attacker Enevoldsen are still out.

Brøndby are typically a strong home side and they also have more quality in the squad than AaB. However, form seems to be pointing in different direction, and if it continues that way, AaB have a good chance of earning something here. I like the conservative +1 line, but the price is too short for a recommendation.

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 1.71 at Pinnacle

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 30/10 18.00

FC Midtjylland have won the last two matches, but they have not really impressed me in the process. They have a quality squad, but they are not producing according to expectations. I think, they lack some team spirit – several players are working primarily for own success. The squad situation is pretty good – winger Wikheim and central midfielder van der Vaart could return after missing the last league match. FC Copenhagen are a level above the rest in the Superliga. I think they have been performing a bit under level in the last Superliga matches (including the 3-0 win at OB, where FC Copenhagen were just efficient), but some of the reasons could be focus on Champions League and taking matches against weaker Superliga teams a bit too easy. I am sure they will line-up in the strongest formation here (no reported injuries) and very focused, as this match is important for the title. FC Copenhagen have met FC Midtjylland three times in 2016 and won all three.

I think FC Copenhagen will arrive here to prove that they are indeed the strongest side in the league. I think they are significantly better than FC Midtjylland, and I don’t see FC Copenhagen losing here. Draw could happen as this could satisfy both teams. Therefore, I think it is necessary to insure fully against the draw. Value down to 1.54.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) -1.64 at Unibet

AGF-Esbjerg

Monday 31/10 19.00

AGF have been in pretty poor form lately. They are without a win in six games, but I don’t think they have been so bad in reality. They have been pretty average and just not managed to win some tight matches. AGF have also had some injury problems, but the situation is looking much brighter for this match. Key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen returns from injury and the same is the case for left back Juelgård. Only important absence is midfielder Olsen who continues to be absent. AGF have struggled a lot defensively, where they don’t need to concede many shots on target per goal (only Silkeborg are worse). Goalkeeper Jovanovic does not impress me and he also conceded a simple goal in the last match. Esbjerg appear to be the weakest team in the league currently. They have not won in eight league games and they have been pretty abysmal in several matches. They lack confidence and quality, but they have also been heavily hit by injuries. This is also the case here, where the versatile Paulsen (expected to play back here) is newest addition to the injury list that also contains key midfielder Andersen, right back Laursen and left back Lauridsen. Fortunately, some players have returned for this match: speedy striker Mensah and left back Jessen. However, many players have been struggling with minor injuries (central defender Nordvik and central midfielder Palsson) or sickness (goalkeeper Højbjerg and right back Hagelskjær), so it will be interesting if Esbjerg line-up with the strongest formation based on the called squad.

A lot of squad news for both teams and still some uncertainties, so this is really a difficult match to price. AGF seem a bit too big favourites here, they have not won in a long time, but they could potentially be close to the strongest formation, which will make life a lot easier for them. On the other hand, I can see Esbjerg having major problems scoring here. They are not strong offensively without the assist-maker Andersen. Esbjerg not scoring could be interesting. They are yet to score more than one goal away from home this season.

Idea: Esbjerg under 0.75 goals – 2.20 at Pinnacle