Viborg-Esbjerg preview

Friday 31/7 18.00

Promoted Viborg (9th) got their first point of the season with 0-0 vs. AGF. Viborg are strong in defence; they are not giving many chances away. AGF did not really have any dangerous chances against them and FC Midtjylland also struggled in the opener (scored from a direct free kick and after a corner). Offensively, they are very dependent on the speedy Serge Deble who should be a handful for most Superliga defender. Deble was knocked unconscious in the last match, but is reportedly ready for Friday. Esbjerg (8th) are the opposite of Viborg. They are fairly weak defensively, where they give away many easy goals. This was also the case last weekend against FC Copenhagen, where a defensive and a goalkeeping error were to blame for the two goals conceded. Offensively, they are fairly strong with some energetic strikers in Nicki Bille and Mick van Buren, and a good chance supplier in Mohammed Fellah. Esbjerg will be without central defender Michael Almebäck, who just earned the spot from Daniel Stenderup, so his absence probably won’t change much.

We predict a match where Esbjerg will have the majority of the ball possession, but could struggle in opening up the Viborg defence. Viborg’s offensives forces, the speed of Serge Deble and set pieces, are some of the weak spots of Esbjerg’s defence. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see Esbjerg dominate, but Viborg getting a good result here. Viborg did not lose a home match last season (17 matches) and this will certainly not be a walkover for Esbjerg.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.975

UPDATE: Esbjerg have sold solid left back Jonas Knudsen and no obvious alternative is available in the called squad.

FC Midtjylland-OB

Friday 31/7 20.00

FC Midtjylland (2nd) have started the season a bit bumpy despite of two wins (out of two) in the league. Truth is that they have been rather efficient and not as dangerous as in the past seasons. Last weekend they rested some players for Champions League duty and question is whether they will do the same again here (second leg vs. APOEL on Tuesday). In any case, FC Midtjylland will probably be without central midfielder Petter Andersson and right back Kristian Bach Bak (captain). Even if FC Midtjylland are to rest a few players, they still have a fine team and they are typically very strong at home (16-0-1 home record last season). OB (1st) have impressed everyone with the start. Their attack has been looking really good after signing Rasmus Festersen who seems to work well with the likes of Rasmus Falk (why is he still not signed by a foreign club!) and Emil Larsen. Due to the terrific start, people seem to be a bit blinded towards OB’s weaknesses. Their defence is not good, and in reality they should probably have lost the last match at Brøndby as they gave away several clear-cut chances.

Much depends on how FC Midtjylland will approach the match. If they field the strongest eleven, they should be clear favourites here as it seems impossible for the OB defence to keep the likes of Pione Sisto and Martin Pusic at bay. Even if FC Midtjylland rest a few players, they should still be favourites here, since they have some fairly good alternatives in the squad. Most importantly, they have a strong backline, which should make it difficult for OB to create something. 16-0-1 home record last season and you get odds 2.30 for a home win, that is quite impressive. Only an idea as team news can change the odds quite a bit.

Idea: 1 – 2.30 at Betfair

AGF-Randers preview

Sunday 2/8 13.30

AGF (4th) have had a pretty good start and it is for a good reason. The summer signings have really improved their quality. AGF have a strong passing game and they seem fairly difficult to dominate. Offensively, the perhaps lack a player with some dribbling skills to create chances, but in Mate Vatsadze they have a very efficient striker. AGF will be without central defender Piscu, who is suspended. He will be replace by fellow new signing Josip Elez, who is expected to have the same level. Randers (5th) won 3-0 in the last match against FC Nordsjælland which was quite remarkable, but truth is that Randers were very efficient (4 shots on target) and played a rather poor match. They look solid at the back, but they have really been struggling in front of goal (evident in their Europa League campaign). A part of the explanation is the absence of the injured duo of Kasper Fisker (assist leader last season) and Mikael Ishak (top goalscorer last season). Randers are typically fairly strong in the centre of the pitch, but veteran Christian Keller has not impressed in the central midfield so far.

This looks like the most probable draw of the round with two teams that are better at hard and solid work than creativity and beautiful attacking football. Therefore we pick the draw here, but if we were to pick sides, we would probably go for AGF, since we expect them to take charge of the midfield and be in the driving seat.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Unibet

SønderjyskE-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 2/8 16.00

SønderjyskE (6th) have been a positive surprise. They have been the better side in the first two matches, which was quite surprising since they were two rather difficult matches (FC Nordsjælland away and FC Midtjylland at home). They lost the last match to FC Midtjylland (2-1) despite of keeping FC Midtjylland without any real scoring chances throughout the match. The point is that they defensively look quite strong and difficult to breakdown. However, they do not create much offensively and in our opinion they lack speed in order to pursue their favoured counter-attacking approach. An option could be using Silas Songani, but he has not been among the new head coach Jacob Michelsen’s favourites. SønderjyskE tend to struggle at home, since they are often forced out of their defensive comfort zone. They only managed to win two home games last season. FC Copenhagen (7th) look really interesting this season. They have made some quality signings and they have a brilliant defensive base, which makes them very difficult to beat. Offensively, they also look way stronger with the signings of some strong wingers (Verbic and Kusk). They will be a handful for most defenders in the league. Especially Verbic played great last weekend and made a good back like Ryan Johnson Laursen look bad. We are yet to see the quality of the new striker Federico Santander (starts Europa League match Wednesday night).

SønderjyskE have looked good in previous matches and been able to avoid conceding many chances. However, against FC Copenhagen’s powerful offence, they are unlikely to keep them down for the entire match. SønderjyskE will probably struggle to create chances as FC Copenhagen are so strong at the back that a fairly immobile Thomas Dalgaard will be easy to handle. FC Copenhagen should win this match-up at least 50% of the time.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 2.05 at Unibet

Brøndby-Hobro preview

Sunday 2/8 18.00

Brøndby (10th) have had a terrible start with two losses in two matches they were expected to win. They were fairly poor in the first match against AGF, but they showed promising things against OB, where they only lacked some efficiency. Brøndby could get some efficiency with the signing of striker Ronnie Schwartz from Guingamp, although he will probably need a few matches to be at his best. Brøndby will be without talismanic defender Daniel Agger for the next four to six weeks. Brøndby will play Europa League against Omonia Nicosia before and after this match. Hobro (11th) have lost several profiles and they are suffering from it at the moment. It is especially in attack, where the goals of Mads Hvilsom (16 last season) and the disturbing effect of the speedy Quincy Antipas (injured) are dearly missed. Hobro have not scored so far and what is worse is that the lack of offensive quality is putting extra pressure on a defence that is not among the strongest in the league.

Hobro managed to beat Brøndby three times last season and therefore odds 8.50 for an away win should be a gift. However, Hobro are not the same team as last season and it will be very difficult to repeat the terrific performance. They will probably struggle in front of goal again, and we expect it to be more likely that they won’t score here.

Idea: Hobro under 0.5 goals – 1.95 at Betfair Sportsbook