Brøndby-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 28/11 19.00

Brøndby (4th) have been great lately. In the last five games their score is 6-0 and much of the defensive stability has been credited new signing Khalid Boulahrouz. In our stats review we argue that Boulahrouz has had a positive effect on Brøndby although the five clean sheets in a row are primarily due to luck. What makes Brøndby’s recent performance with nine matches without losing even more impressing is the amount of injuries to key players they have been coping with at the meantime.  In the last match Brøndby saw comebacks for midfielders Thomas Kahlenberg and Martin Ørnskov, but also lost both defender Martin Albrechtsen and midfielder, and captain, Mikkel Thygesen to injury. The good thing is that Brøndby actually played better after Kahlenberg and Ørnskov came on as substitutes, the bad that Albrechtsen and Thygesen have been vital this autumn. There are more plusses for the match. Right back Michael Almebäck and striker Kenneth Zohore looks to return. Especially the latter is important since Brøndby were clearly suffering offensively last weekend when they were without a true striker. Unfortunately for Brøndby their top scorer, Simon Makienok (6 goals), is probably not fit for this match either. His absence is vital, although Brøndby have done decently in offense without him. FC Copenhagen (3rd) are really bashing their opponents at home at the moment, and it seems they have found confidence after a terrible start to the season. They are still not very good when playing away. They have only won one away match this season and it was against Viborg the 1st September, three months ago! This is clearly a problem for FC Copenhagen; they are yet to find the right away recipe. Things are not getting easier with the likely absence of top scorer Igor Vetokele (7 goals) and winger Daniel Braaten. Certain is the absence of winger Rurik Gislason, who has been strong this autumn although losing some momentum in the recent games. Nevertheless these (possible) absences leaves FC Copenhagen with some issues and they could be forced to field a team with some players that have not performed very well nor seen much action this autumn. We believe that Copenhagen will field a team much like the team that lost against Juventus in midweek. Jørgensen will move to second striker position, while Cesar Santin is our favourite for the front spot. Santin has scored only twice this season and he is clearly no longer as good as few seasons ago. The last time Brøndby faced FC Copenhagen it ended 3-2. Brøndby were led by strong performances by Szymanowski and Makienok. It will be interesting to see how they will perform without the presence of Makienok.

If we look at stats Brøndby and FC Copenhagen are the two strongest teams in the league over the last five games. Both have a SoTR of more than 60% in these games, which is very high. A good match should be in store. Both teams are struggling with injuries to important players and believe that the teams are very similar in strength. The difference is the home field advantage of Brøndby plus FC Copenhagen’s the tough midweek match and at more than odds 3; we see good value in the home side.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 3.05 Mermaidbet