Season 2016/2017 is over, and I felt the
urge to write a few words. It is mainly just a few thoughts about interesting
observations that should be exciting to look at in the upcoming season.
FC
Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen had an outstanding season.
You can’t argue that they were the best side; they were by significant margin.
However, the gap to 2nd place in the table could be a bit more than what would
be fair. Because FC Copenhagen also turn out to be one of the “luckier” sides,
as they were super efficient offensively and defensively in terms of shots this
season, and you can’t expect them to sustain such overperformance over time.
Most important were goalkeeper Robin Olsen.
FC Copenhagen had the leagues highest saving rate: 82.8% while the league
average is only 71.8% - and yes, it is true that Robin Olsen faces easier shots
than most other keepers (lowest percentage of shots conceded from the penalty
box), but even after adjusting for this, Olsen has really overperformed. Also,
with central defender Zanka leaving, there is a risk that FC Copenhagen might not be as solid defensively next season.
Offensively, FC Copenhagen did also
overperform, as they were efficient with their shots in general. But this was
also due to FC Copenhagen taking more shots from the penalty box than most
other sides (only AaB hold a higher percentage of shots from the penalty box).
Looking at the players, FC Copenhagen will
lose striker Cornelius, which could be crucial. His production in terms of getting
shots in dangerous positions is very similar to fellow strikers Santander and
Pavlovic, but he proved better at assisting in the previous season, where his
assists per 90 minutes were 0.33 while Santander only had 0.13 and Pavlovic
0.16. Looking at the wingers, Verbic seems to be the player able to get in the
most dangerous situation, and he should have scored more goals this season
according to his shots locations. Other wingers like Falk and Toutouh don’t get
in as many dangerous positions, but are instead better at producing assists. A
place where Copenhagen could see some issues is the central midfield, where
central midfielder Delaney averaged impressive 0.23 expected goals per 90
minutes, while his “replacements” Matic and Gregus only averaged 0.08 and 0.10
respectively. That is some difference, and Copenhagen could be missing some
central midfield goals in the future.
AGF
AGF had a quite poor season, but finished off nicely. Looking at the stats overall, AGF comes out as a mid-table side and not a side that should have had concerns about relegation.
AGF had a quite poor season, but finished off nicely. Looking at the stats overall, AGF comes out as a mid-table side and not a side that should have had concerns about relegation.
AGF have had big issues in the past season
on the goalkeeper position, where they consistently has had a lower saving rate
than the league average. This was also the case this season (saving rate: 68.2%
- league average 71.8%), but after adjusting for shot positioning, AGF’s
Jovanovic actually had a decent season. It is obvious that AGF have conceded
too many shots in the penalty box, but it is hardly surprising due to all the
forced rotation during the season. Signing Pierre Kanstrup from SønderjyskE
seems like an excellent decision as he played every single minute last season
(but worth mentioning that SønderjyskE actually conceded more shots in the
penalty box in the past season!).
Offensively, AGF’s production was fairly
good. They were also the non-top 6 team scoring most goals and the underlying
stats suggest that it was no coincidence, as they produced a solid amount of
chances.
Looking at the players, AGF have a really
solid production from Morten Duncan Rasmussen, who holds a xG per 90 minutes
(without penalties) on 0.36. For AGF the main problem was that he did not play
all games this season (missed 10 starting appearances). A player like Kasper
Junker who showed promising things only comes in at 0.22 xG per 90 minutes, but
instead he was good at assisting (0.26 assists per 90 minutes). AGF should consider bringing Mustapha Bundu more often. With the small sample issue of
only playing 403 minutes, he had a xG per 90 minutes of 0.46 – very promising,
but he also needs to work a bit on shot locations as he tend to take a lot of
shots from the distance (with low xG).
The biggest villain was probably Martin
Spelmann who only scored 2 non-pen goals. He should have scored 5 according to
stats, but he was very wasteful. As scoring efficiency tend to balance over time,
AGF fans should expect more goals from Spelmann ahead.
The assists and xG from the wingers are not
very impressive for AGF. They have lacked a strong winger, who can get in
dangerous positions. Thus, it looks like upgrade to add Jakob Ankersen, as he
is a guy known to get in dangerous positions. Overall, AGF seem to have
improved some weak points ahead of next season, and they should expect a better
season ahead.
Brøndby
Looking over the entire season, Brøndby
deserved their 2nd place. However, it was a story of two halves, as Brøndby
were almost as good as FC Copenhagen statswise in 1st part of the season, while
they only played like a mid-table side in the 2nd half of the season. Of
course, Brøndby lacked some motivation at the end of the season with everything
settled, but at the same time you could fear that Brøndby are past the initial
positive boost from head coach Zorniger’s very different style.
Offensively, Brøndby had by far the most
shots fired by any team in the league, yet they were 12 goals short of being
the most scoring. The reason is clear, Brøndby take way too many poor shots
from distance. In fact, they had more than 100 shots more from the distance
than the next team – that is something. Brøndby rank quite low on the
percentage of shots in the penalty box (55% -
FC Copenhagen at 66% for comparison), and this definitely something to
work with. This is also why Brøndby hold a lower scoring rate than the league
average – simply too many poor shots. It should be better to keep the ball and
try to make chances bigger by moving it into the box to Pukki or Wilczek.
Defensively, Brøndby also have issues. They
conceded more shots in the box than all the other top teams, and quite
extraordinary Brøndby were the team in the league conceding the highest
percentage of shots from the penalty box (66% - FC Copenhagen at 49% for
comparison). This could be something with the attacking style, which lets
opposition get easier access to dangerous shooting positions. In that light, it
is really remarkable that Brøndby have a saving rate that is higher than the
league average (76.2% - average 71.8%) and goalkeeper Rønnow deserves a lot of
credit.
Looking at the players, the stats actually
suggest that Wilczek is getting more dangerous shots than Pukki (xG per 90 min:
0.51 and 0.38 respectively), but while Wilczek performed what you can expect,
Pukki seem to have overperformed by around 5 goals – he has been really
efficient this year, and it would be difficult for him to repeat next season.
Perhaps, Brøndby should look to sell him if they get a big offer. In midfield
you should not underestimate the importance of Hjulsager, who were the most
dangerous midfielder for Brøndby this season, yielding an impressive 0.29 xG
per 90 minutes, a tad better than Mukhtar at 0.26 xG – with both being pretty
strong at assisting too. The departure of Hjulsager in winter could be a part
of the explanation for Brøndby’s poor spring, as they now only had one real
midfield threat. Brøndby have signed Fisker as replacement, and he had a xG of
0.17 per 90 minutes in Randers, but he might be able to improve this number in
a better club. He needs to, otherwise Brøndby might struggle as in spring.
FC
Nordsjælland
Nordsjælland were better in the 2nd half of
the season, despite playing stronger opponents. They struggled with injuries
and consistency in the 1st half of the season, but really got the attack going
in the 2nd half. Overall, I don’t rate them as more than a mid-table side
though. They benefitted from being efficient in front of goal, more than you
can expect in the future.
Offensively, FC Nordsjælland did score a
good number of goals, but their chance production was not impressive. Actually,
FC Nordsjælland probably scored 10-15 goals more than what their stats suggest.
Only FC Copenhagen and Horsens had a higher scoring rate, but those teams also
had really good shots placement, while FC Nordsjælland were fairly average due
to a high number of shots from the distance.
Defensively, FC Nordsjælland did okay.
Saving rate was average, and also fairly average in avoiding shots from the
penalty box. But they conceded way more shots than they fired. FC Nordsjælland
conceded 96 more shots than they fired, and yet they finished with a +4 goal margin
– this just shows how efficient they were offensively.
Looking at the players, Marcus Ingvartsen
had a break-out season, obtaining the league top goalscorer prize. But truth is
that he overperformed quite a lot. In fact, stats suggest that he scored 11 (!)
goals more than what you could expect based on his shots. He only managed to
get a xG of 0.27 per 90 minutes, and fellow striker Donyoh actually had a
higher xG of 0.34. So for me, I think FC Nordsjælland should take a big offer
for Ingvartsen now, as there is very little chance he will have such a season
again. Looking at other players, midfielder Marcondes were also in insane
overperformance mode, as he 6 goals more than what you should expect from his
shots. However, still a remarkable midfield xG of 0.31 per 90 minutes – this is
very strong. Interestingly, the highly appreciated central midfielder Lobotka
only managed to have 0.12 assists per 90 minutes, while fellow central
midfielder Mathias Jensen had 0.35 assists. Nevertheless, it is obvious that
Lobotka plays a big role in linking play despite not necessarily scoring or
making the final pass. Finally, Nordsjælland also deserve credit from their
attacking backs Pedersen and Bartolec that have a solid assist production.
