Saturday 23/11 17.00
Randers (10th) have had a very disappointing 2013: losing cup final, exiting Europa League after one round and now heading towards 2014 barely above the relegation line. It is especially disappointing since Randers on paper look solid: a good combination of veterans and young ambitious players. Several players have however not been repeating old merits, although some of the blame rightly can be put on injuries and suspensions. That opportunity exists again on Saturday where Randers will be without the suspended Elmar Bjarnason and latest reports indicate that captain Christian Keller is also expected to be absent . Bjarnason and Keller are the normal central midfield of Randers, you could even claim they are the backbone. The possible alternatives, youngster Nicolai Poulsen (only two starting appearances career) or Lorenzo Davids (only 10 minutes played this season), are not generating optimism. Randers are likely to lose the power battle in midfield, but they are not the worst counter-team in the league so it is not necessarily a drawback. OB (9th) have been lousy at creating chances this season. Based on the measures TSR or SoTR they are among the weakest third in creating chances. Our explanation is that they have poor strikers that have been unable to finish opportunities. The addition of Mustafa Abdellaoue has definitely been helpful in improving the situation. In the last five matches OB’s chance creation is close to the league average (SoTR: 49,2 %), which indicates OB are doing better. OB will also benefit from the return of talismanic midfielder Rasmus Falk. In the ten matches he has been able to play more than 45 minutes, OB have earned 15 points. In the remaining five matches OB have only earned 3 points. So Falk = points! OB might be without central midfielder Conor O’Brien, but they should still be able to take the midfield initiative (if they want to). Veteran Anders Møller Christensen is also absent from the backline, but this is nothing new.
Randers (10th) have had a very disappointing 2013: losing cup final, exiting Europa League after one round and now heading towards 2014 barely above the relegation line. It is especially disappointing since Randers on paper look solid: a good combination of veterans and young ambitious players. Several players have however not been repeating old merits, although some of the blame rightly can be put on injuries and suspensions. That opportunity exists again on Saturday where Randers will be without the suspended Elmar Bjarnason and latest reports indicate that captain Christian Keller is also expected to be absent . Bjarnason and Keller are the normal central midfield of Randers, you could even claim they are the backbone. The possible alternatives, youngster Nicolai Poulsen (only two starting appearances career) or Lorenzo Davids (only 10 minutes played this season), are not generating optimism. Randers are likely to lose the power battle in midfield, but they are not the worst counter-team in the league so it is not necessarily a drawback. OB (9th) have been lousy at creating chances this season. Based on the measures TSR or SoTR they are among the weakest third in creating chances. Our explanation is that they have poor strikers that have been unable to finish opportunities. The addition of Mustafa Abdellaoue has definitely been helpful in improving the situation. In the last five matches OB’s chance creation is close to the league average (SoTR: 49,2 %), which indicates OB are doing better. OB will also benefit from the return of talismanic midfielder Rasmus Falk. In the ten matches he has been able to play more than 45 minutes, OB have earned 15 points. In the remaining five matches OB have only earned 3 points. So Falk = points! OB might be without central midfielder Conor O’Brien, but they should still be able to take the midfield initiative (if they want to). Veteran Anders Møller Christensen is also absent from the backline, but this is nothing new.
Both teams
are coming from a cold period. We believe OB have the better conditions for
turning the heat on. The return of Rasmus Falk and the completely new Randers
central midfield are the paramount reasons for our recommendation on OB
victory.
Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.08 Bet365
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