Randers-AGF

Monday 17/3 19.00

Randers (9th) have only gained 2 points so far in 2014 and that feat is really extraordinary when you add that during 2014 Randers holds the highest total shots ratio at 68%. This tells us that Randers has had 68% of the attempts in these matches, which signals how dominant Randers have been. They could easily have had 9 points in 2014 and be in 4th place instead. Unfortunately for Randers their strikers have been wasteful. 40 attempts on goal have resulted in only 2 goals! There is positive news however since team top goalscorer Ronnie Schwartz (9 goals this season) looks to return from a collarbone injury for this match. Furthermore midfielders Keller (captain) and Fischer will return from suspension and in that sense it is unimportant that Nicolai Poulsen is suspended. Randers are probably still without two more regulars: right back Thomsen and second striker Brock-Madsen, but they are a lot closer to their best eleven than they have been at any time in 2014. Why has Randers then done so well (play-wise)? One of the keys is the signing of midfielder Kasper Fisker who has been a joy to behold. He is creative but also dangerous (2 shots on the crossbar and 1 goal in 3 matches!) and Randers looks to benefit from his good form. AGF (7th) fans already fear another relegation. It would fit well into the recent rhythm: the last two World Cup years (2006 and 2010) they have been relegated. AGF looked like a 1st Division team on Saturday against AaB (2-5). The defence was poor. The midfield that is supposed to be the strong part was without creativity and energy. Only striker Jesper Lange added some Superliga quality and his fight set up the two goals. The new coach Fredberg could be in over his head and his actions against AaB proved it: not until the 1-5 goal did Fredberg make a substitution. For us that is a clear sign of Fredberg’s disbelief in the squad quality. Fortunately for Fredberg, defender Anders Kure will return for this match. He is a no-nonsense guy that can boost the motivation for some of the other players.

Randers have been playing well in 2014. 2 points should have been at least tripled. On the other hand AGF are miserable and have even so gained 4 points. We think the bookies have given too much concern to the points and not enough attention on the quality on the pitch. In our opinion Randers should be almost 50% favourites for this.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.20 at Nordicbet