AGF-Esbjerg

Monday 24/3 19.00

AGF (6th) delivered a convincing performance in Randers last weekend (3-1). Convincing in that aspect that AGF proved that they are not giving up and they are not as bad as people tell them. After a lot of critic from the media (ourselves included) that they were weak and without quality, they had the worst start in Randers. Going behind 1-0 after 30 minutes where AGF had not even created a shooting opportunity it seemed like another defeat and this could easily have made the team implode like they did the week before vs. AaB. But AGF would not give up and even managed to overcome a red card just before the break. It was not a pretty win but a vital one mentally. Unfortunately AGF will be without the architect of the win, midfielder Danny Olsen, and the strong central defender Anders Kure who are both suspended. They will probably be replaced by Casper Sloth and Petri Pasanen, players capped for Denmark and Finland respectively. On paper not a problem but in reality easily so since Olsen and Kure are players with a lot of positive energy and their presence is really promotional for the entire team. Esbjerg (5th) leads the league in points if you only look at 2014 (three wins and one draw). They dominated the last match against Brøndby but failed to create the decisive chances. This were also the problem last autumn where Esbjerg at times had a hard time finding the net. New signing, the striker Pusic, has otherwise been a pleasant surprice for his great physique and ability to hold up the ball. But he has still only scored on a penalty in the first match. Esbjerg is a strong team however and with Kian Hansen back in the central defence it looks solid. Esbjerg leads the charts in fewest shots on target allowed in 2014: only 13 shots. Esbjerg are still without the creative midfielder Fellah but other than that they have a full squad to choose from.

Esbjerg look stronger in this match and they should be favourites. Odds are just acceptable. Furthermore we also find some value in under 2.5 goals. We believe it will be a tough battle in midfield like it is traditionally when Esbjerg visit Aarhus. In fact the two last matches in Aarhus have totalled one goal. Odds 1.92 is valuable especially since AGF are without their most dangerous man, Danny Olsen (scored 4 out of 6 AGF spring goals).

Ideas:

Under 2.5 – 1.92 at Unibet

2 – 2.15 at Nordicbet