FC Copenhagen-Randers

Sunday 23/3 17.00

FC Copenhagen (3rd) have really been a disappointment in 2014. Only one win in four matches was not what you expected from a team that needed a lot of spring points to regain the championship. But FC Copenhagen have been poor. The striker Andreas Cornelius has looked far from his old level, while the absence of the gifted midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen has been vital. Quite amazingly FC Copenhagen have only managed to get 15 shots on target in the first four matches which is the 2nd worst in the league only topped by Viborg’s 13. FC Copenhagen will benefit from the return of the offensive players Cornelius and Braaten from suspension, but Jørgensen is unfortunately still injured. It will be interesting to see whether they can create chances. Randers (10th) were our biggest disappointment last weekend when they lost to AGF (1-3). Their wasteful finishing was visible once more. They had 20 shots but only three managed to get on target! In total they have had 60 shots in the first four matches but only managed to score three goals. In that sense it is positive that strikers Schwartz and Brock-Madsen are looking to return the upcoming weekend. Schwartz even got 10 minutes against AGF but looked a bit from his old form. Question is whether a week more will benefit much? Nevertheless we would be surprised if he is not in the line-up since Swedish striker Lundberg has been invisible in the past few matches. Randers will probably be without defenders Johnny Thomsen and Mads Fenger who both left early with injuries against AGF. Alternatives Chris Sørensen and Alexander Fischer are decent though. Based on our stats Randers holds the league’s highest TSR of 2014 (67%), this means that they have 67% of the shots in the matches they have played. They also have the lowest PDO, which we call the luck barometer (they have been very unlucky/inefficient!). Our argument: if Randers keep up their chance productivity they should expect to earn more points! The last three H2H’s have ended in seven points to Randers and only one to FC Copenhagen.

Randers have some defensive issues, but FC Copenhagen have not been very dangerous offensively lately scoring a maximum of one goal per match. Even though we burned our fingers on Randers the last time, we cannot see why FC Copenhagen are such big favourites. Proper odds for a home win should be around 1.65. Therefore we pick Randers not to lose by more than one. They have only done so in one out of 10 away matches!

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 2.00 at Bet365