FC Vestsjælland-Viborg

Friday 21/3 18.30

FC Vestsjælland (9th) took a vital win in Nordsjælland last weekend (2-1). A deserved win by a FCV team that played on their superior physique. FC Vestsjælland are in a very good condition currently and only the injured right back Oliver Lund could maybe improve the line-up. FC Vestsjælland’s new striker Edward Ofere has shown his value with two goals in the past two matches. Ofere is strong in the air and with quality wing backs like Michael Lumb and Peter Nymann he has the duo to support him with good crosses (and this is exactly how he scored the two goals). Ofere’s strong heading abilities could also be a big threath unless Viborg puts their big defender Ogunbiyi in to mark him (Ogunbiyi has been struggling with an injury and been on the bench in the recent matches – but played 90 minutes for the reserves in midweek). FC Vestsjælland are a decent Superliga team with an average SoTR of 49%. Viborg (11th) are based on our stats not a decent Superliga team. Poor is probable a better tag since they hold a SoTR of 36%, which is the lowest in the league (for away matches it is horrendous: 30% - to compare: second worst away team have a SoTR of 40%). Stats aside Viborg have been struggling for a long time even though striker Dalgaard does his best to keep them in the league (league top goalscorer with 15 goals – 48% of Viborg’s goals!). Viborg got a fine draw in an even match against a poor and demoralised OB team (1-1). Viborg are yet to win under new coach Auri Skarbalius and it seems like he is still struggling to find the right selection. Last time he introduced Brazilian Wilton Figueiredo to the starting eleven for the first time and the offensive midfielder did well. He could be a possible solution to Viborg’s limited ability to create chances. Viborg will benefit from the return of regular midfielder Lukas Lerager from suspension. The two teams have met twice this season, both times in Viborg. Viborg won these matches 4-1 and 2-0, so it could seem like Viborg got the upper hand.

FC Vestsjælland got a strong line-up when everyone is fit, while Viborg looked better in Odense but have otherwise been very poor in 2014. We believe that FC Vestsjælland’s scoring chances are correlated with whether or not Ogunbiyi is selected in the Viborg defence. If not FC Vestsjælland should have a good match-up against a central defence of Rask and Egeris. The poor H2H scares us a bit, but based on squad quality we believe that 2.15 is worth a shot (to compare OB home win against Viborg was only available at max 1.77 – FCV should be rated at least at the same level as OB at the moment)

Recommendation: 1 – 2.15 at Unibet