AGF-AaB

Saturday 8/3 17.00

AGF (6th), with a new coach, made a remarkable comeback against SønderjyskE to win 2-1 on a last second goal. AGF were actually quite poor. They held the majority of ball possession but failed to create any relevant chances. The goals came from a huge mistake from SønderjyskE keeper Marin Skender who misread a long shot attempt by Danny Olsen and a chaotic overtime corner kick goal from Jens Jönsson. AGF did not look like a team capable of creating dangerous attacks. A big part of this is due to the lack of a quality striker. Jesper Lange is currently the only fit striker and he is a good defensive striker (puts pressure on defence), but absolutely no goal getter. Defensively AGF have looked decent with the combination of Anders Kure and Johan Bjørdal, but a suspension to Kure will wreck this duo. Petri Pasanen or Arthur Sorin will take over and this is a significant weakening since Kure is not only a fine defender but also a good motivator. What should add more concern for AGF is that they lost the similar match in the cup just over a week ago: 1-4 in a very uneven affair. AaB (2nd) had their difficulties against the solid defence of FC Vestsjælland (0-0). They dominated but failed to create the decisive chances. This highlight AaB’s problem when they face a structured defensively orientated opponent. Fortunately for AaB, AGF is not such an opponent. AaB will welcome back central defender Kenneth Emil Petersen from suspension and maybe also important right back Henrik Dalsgaard. In that case attacker Anders K. Jakobsen’s injury is the only thing separating AaB from the strongest line-up. AGF will have their hands full with the young midfielders Kusk and Thomsen that are quick and possess great creativity.

AaB have not lost the last 8 league matches and a week ago they smashed a similar AGF side 4-1 in the cup. AGF have earned 4 points in 2014, which is quite remarkable since a fairer outcome would have been 0 or 1 point. AaB just look a lot stronger here and therefore we pick the away win. We insure against the draw (draw no bet). Unibet’s odds are overpriced compared to the rest of the market.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 1.78 at Unibet