Week 12 round-up

A good week! Well, if you ignore our terrible Tip of the Week statistic. With a hit-rate of only 17% we are naturally very disappointed with our success in this category. We hope that fortune will change soon. Analysis of our former Tip of the Week bets has shown that the market movement after our recommendation has mostly shifted in the right direction. By right direction we mean that the odds on our recommendation has fallen signalling that our assessment of the match has been correct (in the eyes of the market). Picking out the two recent bets, we've seen the odds drop from 2.56 to 2.44 (this round) and from 2.82 to 2.54 (previous round). Arbitrage could have been made by buying our bet at the moment of publishing and selling it at match start. Naturally we want and expect that we will have success in more than predicting the movement in the odds market and we hope to register successful Tip of the Week bets starting from next week. But of course there are no guarantees in betting.

The positive thing is that our other recommendation has been a good success with a nice surplus. Our ideas went 3 for 3 this weekend and is very close to break-even. And finally our new introduction, #Twitbets, has started off with a good surplus as well, so follow us on Twitter for more!

Next picks will be posted Wednesday.

Round 12	Hit Rate	Total (units)	ROI
Tip of the Week	0%	-1,00	0%
Recommendations	50%	0,85	143%
Recommendations Total	33%	-0,15	95%
Ideas	100%	2,93	198%
#Twitbets	50%	0,95	148%
Total	Hit Rate	Total (units)	ROI
Tip of the Week	17%	-3,10	48%
Recommendations	42%	1,64	114%
Recommendations Total	33%	-1,46	92%
Ideas	45%	-0,68	97%
#Twitbets	67%	1,29	143%

To understand the tabels:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.