AGF-Viborg

Sunday 3/11 14.00

Dressed in camouflage outfit AGF (5th) managed to take a much needed win in Esbjerg (2-0); their first in six matches.  Coach Sørensen changed from the malfunctioning 4-5-1 to a 4-4-2 and it brought success. Not that AGF played a good match: they lost the chance statistic 21-9 and only managed to get two shots on target (yes: 100% efficiency). The numbers do not tell the entire story. Esbjerg did not produce a single clear-cut opportunity so in that sense AGF managed to do well. AGF were practically awarded two goals and the big question is whether they will be able to create chances if Viborg do not give them away. One thing should not be forgotten though: AGF got new confidence that could see their game flourish. AGF will be without their “clean-up guy”, midfielder Kasper Povlsen. Hjalte Bo Nørregaard is a decent cover. Viborg (3rd) is a fairy-tale and apparently it is a story without end. The absolute first favourite to take the ticket out of the league proved critics wrong again when they smashed other promoted club FC Vestsjælland (4-1) last weekend to secure a remarkable 3rd place. Viborg’s prime weapon is the counter attack and it was at it’s best with youngster Kevin Mensah netting twice and league top scorer Thomas Dalgaard once. With AGF at the same time being a team with difficulties when given the possession, Viborg should stand a decent chance. Viborg will benefit from the return of left back Poulsen, but on the other hand loses right back Gotfredsen and central midfielder Rømer to suspension; important players, but not irreplaceable.

AGF may get a major boost from winning last weekend. That is the best argument in favour of home win, because based on recent performances Viborg should be better. In that light, it is only due to an underestimation by the bookies, that the odds for Viborg are so juicy. The tactic is clear: defend and wait for counters. It is of great importance that Viborg do not concede the first goal. We believe they will succeed.

Recommendation: 2(Draw No Bet) – 3.50 Unibet