Week 33 Superliga previews

Last previews of the season. Hope you enjoyed it!

Randers-Esbjerg

Sunday 29/5 17.00

Nothing at stake here. Randers have been looking strong all of 2016, but were for once dominated at SønderjyskE in the last round. They would like to finish the season nicely in front of the fans and the leaving head coach. They will have to do without central midfielder Amini who is banned, while right back Thomsen returns. In total, it should be a Randers side close to its strongest. Esbjerg have been terrible in 2016. They have major defensive problems and they seem without a clear strategy. They tend to fall apart in 2nd half as the players use a lot of energy in the first half. Esbjerg continue to have a number of injuries, but the starting line-up should be fairly good – it’s the lack of confidence and clear strategy which seems to be the problem.

Randers have been looking so good for 2016, that I am willing to give them a shot here. The price is not impressive though in a match which nothing at stake. Randers to win second half could be interesting, but price likely to be bigger live. Esbjerg have lost the 2nd half in 5 out of the last 6 matches!

Idea: 1 (2nd half) – 1.90 at Sportingbet

Viborg-Hobro

Sunday 29/5 17.00

Viborg started 2016 nicely, but have struggled lately. I think the long-term injury of creative force Akharraz has hurt them a lot. They still have a defensively solid side with a spectacular striker in Deble. Only minus with Deble is his lack of efficiency. He has made 5 goals this season on 79 attempts. Viborg will be without central defender and captain Rask which is a clear minus. Otherwise, they should be able to field the strongest formation. Hobro have been doing better lately. They are playing fairly even matches and even starting to win a few. However, they have struggled a lot with the offensive efficiency, and apart from George they lack a true goalgetter. George is banned here, so Hobro will probably have to find the net from set pieces, but in that light the absence of Viborg’s Rask who is the strongest header for home side could come in handy.

Viborg won the last head-to-head match with 6-0. It was actually quite even, until Viborg scored the first goal. We won’t see Hobro fall apart in the same way again. They seem much more in balance, and they are here to enjoy the last game in the Superliga before relegation. I think the price for away win is fairly good given the recent performances of both teams, so that is my pick here.

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 1.88 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-AGF

Sunday 29/5 17.00

FC Copenhagen are to celebrate the title here. After giving several players some rest in the past week, they have been called back, so FC Copenhagen should be able to field the strongest side here with only minus being injured winger Kusk. FC Copenhagen would love to finish nicely, so there should be some motivation here. AGF have been playing well throughout 2016, but did not get the points for a long time. That have really changed lately and AGF have also won the tight matches, which they did not do before. AGF should be motivated to take revenge after losing the cup final to FC Copenhagen, but otherwise the match is without real importance. FC Copenhagen with have to do without two regulars, central defender Elez and central midfielder Pedersen.

I think FC Copenhagen will take this, but odds are very low given the unimportance of the match. The bookies price setting actually fit my own pretty well. I will instead with Santander to score. He has been deadly off late, scoring goals in his last 5 starting appearances. With Elez is out, it should only make his life easier.

Recommendation: Santander to score – 2.20 at Unibet

OB-AaB

Sunday 29/5 17.00

Another match without importance. I have not been too impressed by OB in 2016, but with some good offensive players, they will always be able to take some wins. Unfortunately, team top goalscorer Festersen (14 goals) will miss the match with injury. OB still have Jacobsen and Falk in the attack, so they should be able to create something. However, OB defensive quality is also questionable given the absence of backs Barrett and Lund, plus midfielder Skulason. I am especially concerned by OB’s likely choice on left back, Diarra, who makes too many costly mistakes. AaB are also in a bad state. They have really disappointed in 2016, so question is how motivated they are here at the end. They will have to do without several players. Left back Ahlmann is injured and his usual replacement Blåbjerg is banned. In attack, they will be without both usual strikers Enevoldsen and Spalvis (30 goals combined this season), and the replacements have not shown that they are capable of finding the net. The only positive thing for AaB is their strong midfield with Würtz, Risgård and Thomsen, which should be able to dominate OB’s vice versa.

A real summer match with nothing at stake. It could really go either way and it all depends on motivation. Maybe it will even end in a boring draw. I actually think this is a quite likely result given that none of the teams have no urge to push for a win.

Idea: X – 3.85 at Danske Spil

Brøndby-SønderjyskE

Sunday 29/5 17.00

Brøndby will have several players back here, which should increase their chances of taking a win here, which could see them on the podium. However, it is not in the cards that FC Midtjylland lose to FC Nordsjælland (despite my pick), so maybe Brøndby won’t be super motivated. The returning players are right back Larsson and rotation midfielder Holst. The most important return could be central defender Agger, but it is still not clear (squad not published yet). He means a lot for the defensive stability, although I think the media is giving him too much credit as he is certainly far from his Liverpool heydays. Brøndby are not impressive offensively, and they were lucky that Hobro were inefficient and gave away easy goals in the last match. SønderjyskE on the other hand are playing really well at the moment. They are dominating their matches and have a strong commitment and focus. The strategy is clear and they are here to get at least one point, which would leave them with a totally unexpected 2nd place. SønderjyskE have no new absences and should be able to field a strong team here.

SønderjyskE have been playing way better than Brøndby in 2016 (SOTR: 56% vs. 48%) and they seem more committed than Brøndby. Being at home with good support is a clear advantage, but SønderjyskE don’t mind being defensive and go for counter-attacks. If Agger is not playing, value should only increase.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.875 at Bet365

FC Midtjylland-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 29/5 17.00

FC Midtjylland need a win here, otherwise they risk losing the 3rd place. At the same time, a win could give them a 2nd place, which would be a fine final placement. So motivation should be big for the home side. They have done okay in the spring without really excelling. They are clearly not as dominant as they were last season and they have struggled to really get their offensive game going. For this match, the defence could be an issue. Central defender Bodurov is banned, while other central defender Hansen is doubtful with injury. FC Midtjylland have Banggaard as a decent replacement, but if both players are out, they have a problem. Left back Novak will also miss the match with a ban, but that is a minor problem given the great recent performances of the young replacement Nissen. FC Nordsjælland have such a young side. In the last match 9 out 11 players were 22 or younger. This could mean good things awaits in the future if the players are allowed to evolve. Currently, it seems like an investment as FC Nordsjælland are not something spectacular. They get some wins, but mostly on own artificial pitch.

There is a huge difference in motivation and FC Nordsjælland have often looked uninterested in away matches. However, I actually find the price for away win attractive as FC Midtjylland are not flying and have defensive issues. We saw in a previous round that motivated teams, Brøndby and AaB, lost to two teams without anything to play for at odds +7. This could also happen to FC Midtjylland.

Idea: 2 (DNB) – 6.50 at Cashpoint