Week 29 Superliga previews

SønderjyskE-Viborg

Wednesday 11/5 18.00

SønderjyskE have an excellent chance of a magnificent 2nd place. I currently hold them at around 50-55% chance of obtaining that. This would be a spectacular result for the small club, so they will be super motivated. Unfortunately, vital winger Absalonsen is banned here, and SønderjyskE will hope that Madsen will return from a minor injury to replace him. Otherwise, SønderjyskE will be without their most dangerous midfielders. Absalonsen is the team top goalscorer with 11 goals. Defensively, they are really solid. Viborg are also a solid team defensively. Unfortunately, they seem to struggle when the main offensive players are out. This has been the case lately with Deble and Akharraz injured. There is a chance that Deble will return here, which would be a major boost. Captain and central defender Rask is banned, which is a clear minus.

Two teams with similar style: strong defensive outset and dangerous on counter-attacks. The match is way more important for SønderjyskE, but don’t expect Viborg to let them win without a fight. I think the home win is just around value, but a lot depends on the names Madsen and Deble. Madsen would add a few percentages for SønderjyskE and Deble a few for Viborg.

Idea: 1 – 2.00 at Bet25

AGF-Esbjerg

Wednesday 11/5 20.00

AGF have played 10 matches in the Superliga in 2016 without winning. Have they been really poor then? Actually no. They have a quite decent SoTR and in my opinion they are a playing like a mid-table team. Unfortunately, they have the poorest goalkeeper in the league. Steffan Rasmussen continues to cost goals (and points). With a more solid keeper I am sure AGF would have had more success in 2016. AGF look to benefit massively with the return of three key players from bans, striker Duncan and midfielders Bjarnason and Olsen. Strong defensive midfielder Jönsson is newest addition to the suspended list, but AGF should be able to field a fairly strong starting eleven. Esbjerg have earned many points at the start of 2016, despite not playing well. Now they have started to lose and they continue to play poorly. They have had a lot of injuries and bans, so this a big reason for the limited success. For this match three players return from bans: defender Stenderup and midfielders Paulsen and Fellah. Not vital players, but it will help them surely. However, Esbjerg will be without the biggest offensive asset in striker Schwartz who is banned.

Esbjerg are playing like shit and AGF are without a league win this year. However, I think motivation is bigger for AGF. They are playing in front of own fans and the talk about the lack of win is really on their mind. They will go for a win surely. Esbjerg will probably arrive in order to defend. The many line-up changes of late and poor performances have left them with no consistency and poor confidence.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.825 at Bet365

Hobro-FC Midtjylland

Wednesday 11/5 18.00

Hobro need a win here, otherwise they are relegated. Who cares? They will not win the last five matches in any case. They have yet to win in 2016, although they have been getting closer. They played decently in Randers, but they really lack confidence in front of goal. Hobro will try to enjoy the remaining period in the Superliga and try to get the confidence-boosting win. They will have to do without captain and central defender Justesen who is banned. FC Midtjylland were disappointing against AGF in the last round. With the difference in quality and motivation they really should have won. FC Midtjylland do have a very strong squad, but they need to show it consistently. They really need wins, so they should be fully motivated. I don’t expect any new absences for FC Midtjylland who should be able to field a strong starting eleven.

FC Midtjylland need a win here, and Hobro are without a win all year and without their captain. The price is low, but I actually think it might be worth a shot.

Recommendation: 2 – 1.50 at Tipico

FC Nordsjælland-OB

Thursday 12/5 18.00

FC Nordsjælland have not been performing well lately. They have had a lot of injuries, and it also seems like head coach Hjulmand is using the lack of things to play for to test some youngsters. In any case, he is making a lot of changes from match-to-match. He will also be forced to change here as strong winger John left with an injury in the last match. On the plus side is the return of offensive talent Emre Mor. He is very important for the attack, since he is able to draw the attention from many opponents with his great dribbling skills. FC Nordsjælland will probably still be without some of the key players due to injuries (Mikkelsen and Lobotka). OB struggled offensively in the last match against FC Copenhagen, but they were without their offensive star Falk who was banned. He returns here, and then OB will again be a very dangerous team. Their defence has not impressed me, but I actually think they have done fairly well lately. OB have an outside chance of top 4 and European qualification, but they need a win here.

FC Nordsjælland could be without several important players here, while I expect OB to be in the strongest formation. OB also have a bit more to play for, and if Hjulmand again wants to test his squad depth, I think OB deserve to be favourites here. But important to have in mind that FC Nordsjælland are always much stronger on own artificial grass.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.90 at Bet25

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.10 at Tipico

Randers-Brøndby

Thursday 12/5 18.00

Randers are according to my stats the second best side of 2016. They are doing really well, and it is amazing despite of all the off-the-pitch disturbances there have been in the recent months. They have a good and solid squad and they are really difficult to create chances against. They have given away the lowest number of shots in the penalty box in 2016 (3.9 per match). Offensively, the strikers are starting to find the net and if they can continue they will be deadly as the offensive efficiency has been an issue in 2016. Offensive player Lundberg missed the last match and could be out here too, but otherwise no reported absences. Brøndby have been pretty unstable in 2016. I think they have had a lot of focus on the defensive part, which they seem to have strengthened. Offensively, it has not been impressive although Polish striker Wilczek is having a good run. Brøndby have often looked pale in difficult away matches, and it will be vital for them that key players like midfielder Kahlenberg and defender Albrechtsen return. I don’t think they will though.

Randers look very strong at the moment. They need a win here as Brøndby are their nearest rival in the race for European qualification. They have been the best team in almost every match they have played in 2016. Brøndby on the other hand have been very instable and they suffer from many injuries. I think this is a match that Randers will win 45% of the time, so good value here.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.40 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: Brøndby midfielders Phiri and Nørgaard are both banned. This leaves Brøndby very slim centrally and only improves the value.

AaB-FC Copenhagen

Thursday 12/5 20.00

I won’t be making this a final as I believe the race for the title is over. However, it is a vital match for AaB in order to obtain a 2nd place. They are always very motivated at home against FC Copenhagen, so we will no doubt see some intensity here. AaB have improved lately, and they are showing some of the things that made them unbeatable in autumn. There is no doubt that AaB enjoy playing on fine summer pitches. Central defender Petersen should return here, why AaB will be able to select the strongest possible eleven. FC Copenhagen have pretty much won it all. Of course they still need to pick up a few points to seal the deal, but it should be a formality. FC Copenhagen have been very strong this year. They are undoubtedly the strongest side in the league, but they could have some issues here. Creative midfielder Kusk was out with injury in the last match and offensive star, top goalscorer Jørgensen left the last match early, so he is doubtful here. In-form winger Verbic is banned here, so FC Copenhagen look particularly challenged on the wings. The defensive part looks rock solid though.

AaB need a win more than FC Copenhagen here. They are at home, in good form, without injuries and will have strong support. FC Copenhagen have looked a bit fatigued lately and are likely to be without two offensive profiles. I think AaB stand a pretty good chance here and I am sure the value is on the home side here. It is just a question of risk in terms of betting. I pick the DNB.

Recommendation: 1 (DNB) – 2.35 at PartyBets