AGF-OB
Thursday 25/5 20.00
Not much to play for here. AGF are in good
form and really finding the net at the moment. Striker Duncan is really looking
dangerous with 7 goals in the last 3 games! The AGF coaching staff has talked
about the importance of continuing the good run, and I would not expect them to
rest players here. Regular midfielder Bjarnason returns from injury. OB seem to
a bit less focused here at the end of the season. They have released midfielder
Skulason for international duty, while star offensive player Falk was benched
in the last match because he is leaving in the summer window. So the question
is how OB will arrive here. I am pretty sure it will be a fine line-up as they
are without important injuries and Busuladzic who is banned is only a rotation
player. The only question is Falk. It shifts several percentages in favour of
OB if he is playing.
I find this fairly difficult to price. It
all depends on whether Falk play from the start. If he does, I think 3.50
should be value for the away side. If not, I would want at least 4.00. I expect goals, but so does the market. I
pick AGF based on their strong recent performance, but I think you should look
for the OB line-up.
Idea:
1 (AH -0.5)
– 2.12 at Unibet
AaB-FC
Midtjylland
Thursday 25/5 20.00
AaB played another very poor match against
Esbjerg. They needed a win against one of the poorest clubs, but failed
miserably. The players are frustrated as they were dreaming of a title win in
the winter break and now probably ends out of European qualification. Four
regulars will miss this match. Left back Ahlmann, central midfielder Risgård,
league top goalscorer Spalvis and his fellow striker Enevoldsen. All are new
absences and AaB are not known for a big squad depth. Furthermore, the last four
have scored 37 out of 54 AaB goals this season, and the likely replacement
attack of Jönsson and Pohl should not scare FC Midtjylland. FC Midtjylland are
not playing particularly well, but they are not performing as poorly as AaB.
Another thing is that they seem to have a good attitude at the moment and
manages to make comebacks from difficult situations. FC Midtjylland have no
important new absences here and should be significantly stronger than AaB. FC
Midtjylland also need a win here in order to obtain a 2nd place so they should
be motivated.
I already posted a FC Midtjylland win AH +0
at 1.90 as a #Twitbets. I still think there is plenty of value in the away
side. I would go as low as 2.25 for the straight win here. I stick to my former
#Twitbets.
#Twitbets:
2 (AH +0) – 1.90 at Bet365
Hobro-Brøndby
Thursday 25/5 20.00
Hobro delivered a magnificent effort by
beating champions FC Copenhagen 4-2 last weekend. Hobro are relegated and just
seem to be enjoying the final moments in the Superliga. Therefore, this final
home game should also be a day of celebration. Hobro have several good players,
but have lacked team spirit and structure. It seems to be improving and Hobro
have been performing better and better throughout 2015. No new absences
reported. Brøndby made a performance of poor quality in an important situation
last weekend. They needed a win, but failed miserably and also got three
suspensions and one injury. So they will be without key central defender Agger,
important right back Larsson, rotation midfielers Holst and striker Elmander.
Not the best situation as Brøndby already has struggled with injuries. Left
back Durmisi returns from ban. Brøndby need points here, but they look fragile
and they will be without their most influential players here.
I picked Hobro early as a #Twitbets knowing
that Brøndby would be without several players here. Also, Hobro have a good
history against Brøndby. The physical Hobro side is certainly not Brøndby’s
favourite. The #Twitbets has an excellent spot, and I actually don’t think
there is more value left in the home side now. I think the match will see some
goals and both teams to score is not a bad choice.
#Twitbets:
1 (AH +1) – 1.825 at Bet365
Idea:
BTTS – 1.67 at Unibet
FC
Nordsjælland-Viborg
Thursday 25/5 20.00
FC Nordsjælland managed to squander a 3-0
lead with only 20 minutes remaining against AGF. How, they managed to be ahead
3-0 is beyond me, but containing 3 goals show that the young defence has
something to work with. FC Nordsjælland seem to be testing some things ahead of
next season and they have also accepted offensive ace Emre Mor to leave for
international duty. They will also be without veteran winger Mikkelsen and
defender Gregor. I expect to see another very young FC Nordsjælland team with
several technically gifted players, but they really lack physique. Physique is
something that Viborg typically offers. They are defensively solid and very
physical in their style. Offensively, they rely on the speedy Deble for
counter-attacks. He returns from a ban here, which is important. The same is
the case for regular midfielder Grønning. Only negative is the potential
absence of central defender and captain Rask who left the last match with an
injury.
Nothing at stake here, and I am almost
certain that this will be the match with fewest spectators in the round.
However, it is always an advantage for FC Nordsjælland to play on their
artificial pitch. Despite of this, I think Viborg have some weapons to beat
them. They are stronger defensively and have more physique. I think this match
should be way more even than the bookies!
Tip
of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.26 at Cashpoint
SønderjyskE-Randers
Thursday 25/5 20.00
The stadium is set to be packed in order to
celebrate the first ever medals for SønderjyskE. But there is still plenty to
play for. SønderjyskE need at least 4 points in the last two matches to ensure
the silver medals, which would be a spectacular performance. They have done so
well this spring. They have really dominated many matches, which is quite uncharacteristic
(SOTR of 56% in 2016!). However, a big part of it is also offensive efficiency.
They have scored on 41.7% of their shots on target which is the highest in the
league (29.4%), and while it is true
than they are better to get shots fired near the goal than most rivals, it is
also a scoring rate which will be impossible to retain. The squad situation is
good though with no important missings. Randers have nothing to play for.
Despite of this, I must admit that I have been fairly impressed by them in 2016
(SOTR of 66%!). They have managed to overcome many off-the-pitch issues and
still play very strongly and they have practically dominated very single match
played in 2016. They have been unlucky in many matches. Opponent goalies seem
to overperform when meeting Randers and the same can be said about opposing
strikers. So I like Randers a lot. They have many skilled individuals combined
with a solid defensive base. The only question is motivation, but I am pretty
sure they will do their best to finish the season nicely for their leaving head
coach. Only question is whether Colid Todd will rotate?
SønderjyskE have motivation on their side
and although they are playing strongly, I actually see Randers as the better
side here. Only concern is the potential rotation of the away side. Will he
field his best eleven or allow some other players to get a few minutes here at
the end of the season. Well, I am willing to take chance and go for Randers as
the odds are simply too high.
Recommendation:
2 (DNB) – 3.20 at PartyBets
Esbjerg-FC
Copenhagen
Thursday 25/5 20.00
Esbjerg finally got a win after a long
streak of disappointments. Esbjerg have been really poor in 2016. Their current
position is way below expectations and what would you expect based on salary,
but they are simply not performing better and not a matter of being unlucky. My
stats currently have them as poorer than Hobro in 2016. One of the reasons is
surely a lot of absences. Constant new injuries and bans have really made life difficult.
For this match regular striker Schwartz and midfielder Nielsen are injured,
while rotation midfielders Rise and Lyng are out too. So forget about
consistency. Important midfielders Lekven and Andersen are set to return. FC
Copenhagen have been hugely superior in 2016. They are clear and deserved
winners and surely have the strongest squad in the league. After winning the
title, I think they relaxed a bit too much and suffered an embarrassing loss
against Hobro. Despite being without several players (goalkeeper Olsen,
defenders Augustinsson and Johansson, midfielder Kusk and striker Cornelius), I
still think that the team they can field here should be capable of winning the
Danish title. The two very influential midfielders Kvist and Delaney return
from ban and I think we will see a much more focused FC Copenhagen team here.
On top, they have the deadly duo of Jørgensen and Santander, so they should be
able to create danger against an unimpressive Esbjerg defence.
Nothing at stake here, but both teams are
playing for honour. I am not at all impressed by Esbjerg and I really expect FC
Copenhagen to make a more committed effort here. I pick the away win here.
Recommendation:
2 – 1.85 at Sportingbet
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