Randers-AGF

Monday 17/3 19.00

Randers (9th) have only gained 2 points so far in 2014 and that feat is really extraordinary when you add that during 2014 Randers holds the highest total shots ratio at 68%. This tells us that Randers has had 68% of the attempts in these matches, which signals how dominant Randers have been. They could easily have had 9 points in 2014 and be in 4th place instead. Unfortunately for Randers their strikers have been wasteful. 40 attempts on goal have resulted in only 2 goals! There is positive news however since team top goalscorer Ronnie Schwartz (9 goals this season) looks to return from a collarbone injury for this match. Furthermore midfielders Keller (captain) and Fischer will return from suspension and in that sense it is unimportant that Nicolai Poulsen is suspended. Randers are probably still without two more regulars: right back Thomsen and second striker Brock-Madsen, but they are a lot closer to their best eleven than they have been at any time in 2014. Why has Randers then done so well (play-wise)? One of the keys is the signing of midfielder Kasper Fisker who has been a joy to behold. He is creative but also dangerous (2 shots on the crossbar and 1 goal in 3 matches!) and Randers looks to benefit from his good form. AGF (7th) fans already fear another relegation. It would fit well into the recent rhythm: the last two World Cup years (2006 and 2010) they have been relegated. AGF looked like a 1st Division team on Saturday against AaB (2-5). The defence was poor. The midfield that is supposed to be the strong part was without creativity and energy. Only striker Jesper Lange added some Superliga quality and his fight set up the two goals. The new coach Fredberg could be in over his head and his actions against AaB proved it: not until the 1-5 goal did Fredberg make a substitution. For us that is a clear sign of Fredberg’s disbelief in the squad quality. Fortunately for Fredberg, defender Anders Kure will return for this match. He is a no-nonsense guy that can boost the motivation for some of the other players.

Randers have been playing well in 2014. 2 points should have been at least tripled. On the other hand AGF are miserable and have even so gained 4 points. We think the bookies have given too much concern to the points and not enough attention on the quality on the pitch. In our opinion Randers should be almost 50% favourites for this.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.20 at Nordicbet

Esbjerg-Brøndby

Sunday 16/3 19.00

Two of the spring’s best teams are facing off in this thriller. Esbjerg (5th) have climbed after starting the spring beneath the relegation line. The defence has improved dramatically where the saving percentage has steadily increased from 64% to 66%. Another place they have improved are at the other end of the pitch. The passing game has a different flow, which was evident this weekend at Viborg. Striker Mushaga Bakenga had about three clear-cut chances and one of them resulted in a goal. With his partner in crime up front Martin Pusic everything is at another level. They seem to compliment each other well and with two goals in three matches Bakenga is thriving at the front with Pusic. Brøndby (4th) have won their last two matches and have only lost one in their last 14. An impressive stat for a team that just only avoided relegation last season. The turmoil that was going on in the boardroom has settled and that might have calmed the morale of the squad. Especially the morale has changed and there is this new aura around Brøndby. Even though things are different there still are some concerns for the fans. Brøndby have looked strong in their two home games of 2014 but in the away game against Randers they played awful. Especially the central defence without regulars Boulahrouz and Albrechtsen was not convincing. Boulahrouz and Albrechtsen are likely to be out here as well.

With no suspensions and a few injuries for Brøndby (Boulahrouz and Albrechtsen), both team are all set. This will be an interesting and intense match. We believe that the problems in Brøndby’s defence combined with the new and improved offence of Esbjerg will be decisive. 

Recommendation: 1 - 2.65 at Mermaidbet

AaB-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 16/3 17.00

AaB (2nd) made quite an impression by winning 5-2 in Aarhus last weekend. Led by midfielders Thomsen and Kusk the AaB attack was on fire and the absence of striker Anders K. Jacobsen was not evident since the alternative, youngster Lukas Spalvis, did brilliantly. Midfielder Rasmus Würtz was sick but his absence was covered well by Patrick Kristensen. Würtz should be back for this match while Anders K. Jacobsen will not. In total it is an AaB squad very close to best line-up. Add to this that they have a strong home pitch: they have not lost in 15 consecutive home matches. FC Midtjylland (1st) can put themselves in a perfect position for a first championship title if they win this match, although they would probably be satisfied with a draw. After smashing FC Copenhagen 5-1, they looked more modest against SønderjyskE and only poor refereeing and an efficient striker in Morten Duncan Rasmussen secured them a win (2-0). Dead last SønderjyskE were at the same level. FC Midtjylland suffered without the stability of having central defender Erik Sviatchenko in the line-up. Sviatchenko is injured for this match too. Furthermore normally strong winger Sylvester Igboun looked far from match fitness. Midfielder Petter Andersson is suspended. So all in all it is a FC Midtjylland team in a good position but not good condition.

AaB just come of a strong match, while FC Midtjylland’s performance was a bit more vague. We think that AaB have more momentum and combined with the home field advantage we find value in the home team. Some risk of a draw is natural in such an important match and we bet so we get money back in case of that outcome.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0) – 1.71 at Mermaidbet

OB-Viborg

Sunday 16/3 14.00

It is starting to look like a déjà vu for OB (8th). The last two years terrible spring performances have forced them to fight for survival until the very end of the seasons. Both years they ended just above the relegation line and this time around it could go down to the wire as well. The main concern for coach Troels Bech is the strikers. Abdellaoue is the only one who has consistently scored goals this season but he is just about to return to full match fitness after an injury. Neither Bodul nor Skoubo are the goal getters they so desperately need. Especially Bodul has been dead awful so far in 2014. On the plus side wingers Larsen and Falk are both getting closer to the form they had in autumn. Some good news is that important back/winger Bashkim Kadrii has been playing for the reserves. He might get a few minutes but will not be but will not start after a torn ACL. OB will not force him in. Keeper Toppel is suspended but Christiansen is an adequate reserve. Viborg’s (11th) problems were evident against Esbjerg last week. They only scored due to a blunder by the defence and were not able to create many big chances. Only two players stand out. Striker and top scorer Dalgaard still has the edge needed to become the league top scorer at the end while keeper Peskovic is the only reason that Viborg haven’t lost the last two matches by five goals or more.

Viborg cannot create the chances they need to travel home with points in their luggage. For OB the solution for their striker problem is Abdellaoue but he is doubtful and is unlikely to play full time. We reckon that with a healthy Larsen and Falk, OB will get the three points here.

Idea: 1 - 1.77 at Mermaidbet

FC Nordsjælland-FC Vestsjælland

Saturday 15/3 17.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) took another away beating by losing 4-1 in Brøndby. This was the 8th away loss in 10 matches and if it was not for a strong home statistic FC Nordsjælland would be halfway in the 1st Division by now. At home FC Nordsjælland have only lost one match the entire season and it happens to be against FC Vestsjælland, the visitors this weekend. FC Nordsjælland usually arrive to the home matches with much more eagerness and they tend to dominate these matches (unlike the away matches). Unfortunately for FC Nordsjælland they are still facing a lot of problems with the availability of their key players. For this match they will be without their captain, the central midfielder Nicolai Stokholm, and probably also the preferred striker, Morten Nordstrand. Both are vital players that leave FC Nordsjælland as a team without a clear figurehead to add belief when things get tough. The opponents FC Vestsjælland are still to win in 2014. They have been very inefficient, but the last two matches proved that the defence is better than the first 0-4 loss against SønderjyskE suggested. FC Vestsjælland have a strong ability to undermine the opponents creativity when playing away. Their impressive away record highlights this. In 11 away matches they have lost only three: two losses to weak Viborg and a slim 1-0 loss against FC Copenhagen. FC Vestsjælland not facing the match as defensively as the normal Superliga away match can explain the losses in Viborg. The point is that FC Vestsjælland are very strong at limiting the opponent by adopting a very defensive approach away. The 0-0 in Aalborg against an offensively strong team that went on the beat AGF 5-2 in this round last highlighted this. FC Vestsjælland will welcome back important midfielders Henrik Madsen and Rasmus Festersen.

The absence of the key players for FC Nordsjælland combined with FC Vestsjællands strong away record means that we think the value is against FC Nordsjælland. We could have picked X2, but we find the draw as the most interesting outcome (combined the two teams have 45% draws if you add up their respective home and away records).

Idea: X – 3.85 at Betfair

SønderjyskE-FC Copenhagen

Friday 14/3 18.30

SønderjyskE (12th) have been unlucky in the past two matches, which have both ended in defeats. Against AGF they were in the lead and dominated the match but AGF made a comeback out of the blue. Against FC Midtjylland it was a very even affair, but FCM’s striker Duncan and some poor refereeing decisions led to another loss. It is really too bad for SønderjyskE who have played with great energy and focus. They will face another difficult opponent here and they will have to do it without their defensive midfield engine Guira who is suspended. This will allow veteran (and captain) Henrik Hansen to enter. He will surely be motivated but he clearly lacks Guira’s ball winning abilities. Offensively SønderjyskE look threatening despite not being able to take dividends hereof in the recent two matches. We are sure that Bechmann and Okotie will add more goals to their tally during the spring. FC Copenhagen (3rd) kept themselves alive in the championship battle with a slim away win in Odense. It was a fairly even match, where FC Copenhagen’s lack of offensive firepower when Cornelius and Jørgensen (he played ten minutes) are not there was evident. Copenhagen will probably have to do without both of them this time around too, Cornelius is suspended and Jørgensen injured. Furthermore other offensive alternatives Braaten (suspension) and Vetokele (injury) are maybe not available either. This leaves FC Copenhagen with discarded striker Adi or youngster Amankwaa. Not perfect! Add to this that the defence with old Mellberg and inconsistent Stadsgaard has not frightened anyone (FC Midtjylland scored five goals against it two weeks ago).

FC Copenhagen have a lot of offensive problems and if players like Vetokele and Jørgensen are not fully fit for the match, SønderjyskE should have a fine victory chance. We pick SønderjyskE not to lose.

Idea: 1 (HCP 1-0) – 2.20 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: FCK news: Jørgensen is out, while Vetokele might be fit enough to start. Our idea bet seems sensible. 

Week 21 round-up

A splendid week for us. We were only one goal from the perfect weekend. 6 out of 7 bets were in the bank! Finally we saw some results that made sense. We hope this will continue in the coming weeks. Stay tuned - bets for next week will be posted today!

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

Viborg-Esbjerg

Sunday 9/3 14.00

Viborg (10th) were the biggest surprise during the autumn season but it seems like they cannot continue the great form they had. In the first two matches of 2014 their SoTR is an awful 25% and is by far the lowest. In last week’s match they were dominated against FC Nordsjælland (2-0). Luckily for them goalkeeper Michal Peskovic had a great day because the loss could have been bigger. Viborg is a team that relies on their counter attack and last time they played against Esbjerg (7th) they won using that tactic. At home their SoTR is 44% and is the third lowest while Esbjerg’s away SoTR is 51%. Esbjerg will be the team with the ball the most. Unfortunately for Esbjerg right back Peter Ankersen is suspended and Ryan Laursen will replace him. This will weaken the right side for the away team. Laursen lacks Ankersens speed and Esbjerg will miss the awareness that the two Ankersen brothers have for each other. Defender Kian Hansen might be back after falling ill last week but they still prevailed against OB. They are now looking like the team they were last spring where they were unstoppable.

Viborg have conceded 16 goals in nine matches this year. With an Esbjerg team that looks like they have transformed over winter this could end up being an away team that will take the three points. 2.10 is not overly impressive though and we keep as an idea.

Idea: 2 - 2.10 at Tipico