FC Nordsjælland-AGF preview

Sunday 27/9 18.00

FC Nordsjælland (7th) took an impressive win away against FC Midtjylland last weekend (1-0). The goal was a stunner, scored by Brazilian star Bruninho. Bruninho has really had a major influence on this FC Nordsjælland team. He has scored 7 goals in 7 matches (out of 9 for the FC Nordsjælland in total!) and leads the league in most goals. He is, to me, the most important individual for a team in the league as he creates many of the goals all on his own. Sadly for FC Nordsjælland, he is banned here. The likely replacement, Ingvartsen, is a young and fairly unproven player and surely far from the quality of Bruninho. Things are not made easier by offensive midfielder Emiliano Marcondes missing the match due to ban and first choice wingers Joshua John and David Moberg-Karlsson both doubtful with injuries. So a very weakened attack. Defensively, they have looked okay in recent matches, and they will try to find comfort in that and their usual strong home record. AGF (9th) have not won in six league matches, despite playing fairly good in some of the matches. They got a morale boost by winning a cup match in midweek, and they will look to build upon that here. Only expected absence is winger Stephan Petersen, so AGF can field a strong team. Their usual weakness is the defence, but with the expected attack of FC Nordsjælland they will probably not be challenged as much as usual. Offensively, they should get they should be able to produce a good number of chances. I think AGF are a bit underrated and stats concur, they rank 4th in terms of SoTR (Shots on Target Ratio).

The absence of Bruninho means a lot. It is really difficult to see how FC Nordsjælland are to score here, especially if John and Moberg-Karlsson also miss the match. AGF have a fairly solid team and they should have good chances of a win here. I expect this match to be very even, and therefore the price for the away win is way too high. I go for the straight win here, but if you want to be more conservative X2 at 1.80 at Bet365 is also nice value.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 3.55 at Danske Spil