SønderjyskE-AGF

Saturday 1/3 17.00

SønderjyskE (12th) got a brilliant start to 2014 with a 4-0 win in Slagelse (against FC Vestsjælland). SønderjyskE were actually a bit lucky since FC Vestsjælland dominated the match for the first 50 minutes, but SønderjyskE were efficient and took an early lead (shots on target: SønderjyskE had 5, FCV 8). In the last 40 minutes SønderjyskE proved what a strong counter attacking team they are when all players are fit. The offensive newcomers, striker Okotie (2 goals) and Songani (1 goal), had a splendid day and look like quality additions. Okotie is physically strong while Songani is speedy and apparently also possess a good kick. The return of striker Bechmann to fully fitness after an autumn plagued by injuries was also important. He scored once. Unfortunately he is unavailable for this match, but Daniel Jensen will return from suspension and probably take Bechmann’s spot as a offensive midfielder. AGF (8th) are a team in crisis, both on and off the pitch. Off the pitch coach Sørensen got unpopular by criticising out the injured team captain and the squad harmony seems low. On the pitch where AGF were lucky with a 1-1 against FC Copenhagen, but got treated more fairly in the 1-4 loss at home to AaB in the cup this Wednesday. AGF lack a quality striker after the retirement of Søren Larsen and it is difficult to see where their scoring will come from. And their play in general is without a target.

So much negative talk about AGF will surely affect them. On the other hand SønderjyskE should be brimming with confidence after their 4-0 win in Slagelse. With two teams at each end of the momentum scale and a fairly even ball game according to the bookies, we decide to disagree and we recommend a SønderjyskE home win. We fear a boring draw, so we insure ourselves from the draw.

Recommendation: 1 (Draw No Bet) - 1.92 at Unibet

UPDATE: The defeat in the cup and the negative publicity were too much for the AGF board who fired coach Sørensen Wednesday night. The young and unproven assistant Fredberg will be the new guy in charge. Although several players will be fond of the absence of the disciplined climate that Sørensen's reign brought, empirics tell that firing a coach is rarely effective (especially in following away matches). So our opinion is that this only improves our bet.