Week 1 Superliga previews

Time to start the season. Remember that you can find the season preview with a team-by-team review here: http://superligabets.blogspot.dk/2016/07/danish-superliga-20162017-preview_6.html

Here are the betting previews for the first round:

Viborg-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 15/7 18.00

Viborg have not had the best preparations. They have been on a losing streak in the three preparation matches and they have struggled with some injuries. Most importantly is the absence of striker Serge Deble. Although he was not a goal machine last season (5 goals and 5 assists), he attracts a lot of attention with his speed and dribbling skills. Without him Viborg went 2-1-5, not impressive – and it shows that Viborg are easier to contain without him. Defensively, Viborg were really good last season, but a number of injuries have hampered the preparations. Fortunately, most players are set to be ready here, but it has not been an optimal preparations. FC Nordsjælland have not made many changes compared to last season, but consistency is never a bad thing. FC Nordsjælland are without injuries for the really important players, and I actually see them as slightly stronger now than last season, since striker Ingvartsen is finally back in full speed after a longer injury break. I find the offensive FC Nordsjælland setup with John, Fellah, Mikkelsen and Ingvartsen as a potentially quite potent attack. Goalkeeper David Jensen is set to miss the match, but replacement Runarsson is not much worse.

FC Nordsjælland often struggle in away matches, but I think they look stronger than Viborg here. To me, the absence of Deble will be vital, and I think a Viborg side that has made a number of replacements in the summer break in midfield could need some more time to get going. I only hold Viborg as small favourite here, mainly due to FC Nordsjælland’s tendency to perform poorly away from home. This leaves plenty of value on the away side.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.93 at SBOBet

OB-Silkeborg

Friday 15/7 20.15

OB have sold their most important player in Falk, but they have made several good signings, particularly for the defence, which was a weak point last season. With the defence looking more solid, it will be interesting to see if OB can continue to be as productive without creative ace Falk. They still have two competent strikers in Festersen and Jacobsen, but it will be interesting to see who will step up to provide them with key passes. OB are without influential midfielder/defender Ari Skulason, who is on holiday after being a part of the Icelandic national team during the Euro 2016. Apart from his absence, OB should field the strongest eleven. Silkeborg are a promoted club, and they have deserved to rely on the players securing the promotion. They have several experienced players, but overall they don’t have the most exciting squad. They will rely on playing physically and defensively and hope that it will be adequate for another season in the league. However, I am particularly interested in seeing how winger Robert Skov evolves as he has shown great things lately.

OB look stronger, but Silkeborg have a lot of experience, so I don’t expect OB to just run over Silkeborg. It will probably be a tight match with OB having the possession and Silkeborg defending and awaiting set pieces. Looking at the odds, I have very small value in home win.

Idea: 1 – 1.93 at Pinnacle

FC Copenhagen-Lyngby

Saturday 16/7 18.30

FC Copenhagen get what looks like an easy start to the season. They look very strong, especially if they can keep Delaney on the central midfield, which currently appears to be the case. They showed their strength on Wednesday, when they comfortably beat Crusaders of Northern Ireland in the Champions League qualifications (3-0). I think FC Copenhagen will put Lyngby under pressure from the start, but if/when they get the lead, I think they will focus more on containing and saving energy for what will be a tough schedule with two games per week. Lyngby have really made some nice signings ahead of their return season to the Superliga. However, this is a really difficult match for them, and I expect them to be mostly focused on not conceding. They have made a quality goalkeeper signing in Jesper Hansen and he is set to get a tough debut here.

FC Copenhagen are a few levels above Lyngby and they will be eager to start the season off with a victory.  I find it difficult to see any other outcome here given the professional nature of the squad and I have slim value in the home win and a clean sheet.

Recommendation: Lyngby under 0.5 goals – 2.02 at Unibet

Idea: 1 – 1.45 at SBOBet

SønderjyskE-AGF

Sunday 17/7 13.00

SønderjyskE obtained a magnificent 2nd place last season. I would be hugely surprise to see a repeat of that. The squad has not changed much, but SønderjyskE are now facing a tighter schedule with European matches. Furthermore, their success last season was mainly driven by a scoring percentage that was way above all the other teams. To me this signals that SønderjyskE were lucky. No doubt, they have a fine team with committed players and a clear strategy, but they have one of the lowest budgets in the league, so it should just be a matter of time before they return to their normal position in the league. SønderjyskE are struggling with some injuries ahead of this match. Offensive midfielder Madsen is out with an injury (9 goals last season), while winger Absalonsen (12 goals last season) is doubtful. These are the two top goalscorers for SønderjyskE last season, so it is quite problematic. AGF were quite good last season. I think they deserved more points than they got as they had a pretty good dominance of the games. The problem was the low saving percentage, and AGF has reacted by signing a new goalkeeper. It will be interesting to see if it will help. AGF have made some interesting signings for the midfield, which should dominate many opponents. Unfortunately, vital striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen (team top goalscorer last season with 14 goals) misses the match with an injury. The replacement Kasper Junker is an unproven young player, so it looks like a big loss.

It is always difficult to assess the first match of the season, but my feeling is that value, if any, is on AGF. They face offensive problems, but the strong midfield should be able to dominate, while SønderjyskE are likely to be affected by Europa League matches (plays first match on Thursday against Strømsgodset).

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.975 at Bet365

AaB-Horsens

Sunday 17/7 16.00

AaB have lost several key players during the offseason. Among them the league top goalscorer (Spalvis) and the assist leader (Thomsen). They have made some signings to replace them, but they are unlikely to be of the same level – and certainly not in the first matches of the season. AaB still have a strong midfield with the likes of Risgård and Würtz, but there is a number of question marks concerning other positions. Horsens are a newcomer. They will arrive with a defensive and aggressive attitude. They do not look particularly strong, but they could be difficult to beat. Unfortunately, they face injury concerns regarding possibly the two most important players: central defender Sanneh and offensive midfielder Aabech. Both risk missing the match. Furthermore, Horsens managed to lose 2-0 to FC Midtjylland’s reserves in the last preparation match.

Much depends on the fitness status of Aabech and Sanneh. If they are out, I think value should be on the home side, which despite of the many departures still look significantly stronger. If they are in, I would skip the match.

Idea: 1 – 1.83 at Nordicbet

Brøndby-Esbjerg

Sunday 17/7 18.00

Brøndby will be very interesting to follow, as they will introduce a high-pressing strategy under new head coach Zorninger. Based on the matches played, it seems to be pretty boom or bust. In any case, it appears to leave them more fragile at the back, while also improving their offensive threat due to many balls won high. Brøndby face a tough schedule with a Europa League match against Hibernians on Thursday. Esbjerg finally got a new head coach, former Randers coach Colin Todd. He seems like a great fit for an Esbjerg squad that has struggled under lack of strategy in the last season. Todd knows exactly how to play: 4-4-2 with a strong organisation. The question is if Esbjerg’s players can take in the new tactical approach without having a single preparation match with Todd in charge.

I don’t really know what to expect from Esbjerg just yet. And as Brøndby have a tight schedule, I am not certain that there is value in the home win here. Instead, I will go for goals. I have a clear impression that Brøndby will change from being a clear under team in spring to an over team, due to the massive change of strategy. Esbjerg did not have a strong defence last season, and a 4-4-2 formation suggests that they probably won’t be overly defensive.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 2.01 at SBOBet

FC Midtjylland-Randers

Monday 18/7 19.00

FC Midtjylland received terrible news ahead of the season as defensive midfielder Sparv is out for 6 months. Sparv is a clever player and an integral part of FC Midtjylland’s central axis, so interesting how he will replaced, but the task looks to be given to new signing Halsti. FC Midtjylland have a strong team and looks like the only real threat for FC Copenhagen. However, the start of the season will be difficult as they are also playing midweek matches. If they get a poor start Thursday against Vaduz, they might rest a few players for the return match. Randers lost their highly appreciated head coach Todd and a few important players during the break. So they should be somewhat weaker for the upcoming season. Too bad as Randers looked like one of the strongest teams in spring. Randers still have a fine squad, but I see them having difficulties in the defensive part of the pitch where I am not too impressed by central defender Agesen and sceptical towards the new signed keeper Due. Offensively, they have some quality players, but unfortunately, the best player, Ishak is doubtful due to injury.

Only idea pick as I am not certain that FC Midtjylland will arrive with the best eleven due to the European matches. However, if they do, which I expect, I see them as pretty clear favourites as they appear stronger in every part of the team.

Idea: 1 – 1.99 at Pinnacle

Remaining previews will arrive later..