Week 19 round-up with Superliga prediction

We are off. Our picks did not result in the optimal results as our recommendations netted a loss of 1 unit in total. We had some good spots, so something must be right. Here is a listing of our recommendations and the closing odds (all taken from Bet365):

OB-AGF 2 (+0)

Our pick: 2.40

Closing odds: 2.02

FC Copenhagen-Esbjerg 1

Our pick: 1.50

Closing odds: 1.40

Brøndby-Hobro 2 (+0)

Our pick: 6.40

Closing odds: 6.10

FC Midtjylland-AaB 1 (–0.25)

Our pick: 2.00

Closing odds: 2.10

The last pick ended in a bad odds movement. The pick was made before FC Midtjylland played a poor away game against Manchester United, while AaB looked very strong in the last friendly – that information gain shifted some value towards AaB and against our bet, which is always a risk with an early pick. On a side note, the idea picks also experienced odds drop, so overall a good start in terms of spots.

We hope some at least followed our pick from Twitter, where we spotted the value in Emre Mor as goalscorer at odds 6.50. We did not mark it as a #Twitbet so we won’t include in the betting stats here.

Emre Mor is starting as striker for FC Nordsjælland today, unexpected choice. Opens up for a good goalscorer pick. 6.50 at Bet365.#vfffcn

— SuperligaBets (@SuperligaBets) February 28, 2016

Here are the updated betting stats:

Finally, here is a prediction of the expected points for each team after this round, using our model as explained in our season preview. FC Copenhagen only improve their chances of gaining the title after the win against Esbjerg, while the draw between FC Midtjylland and AaB was great news for the capital side.