We start with the alternative Superliga
tables before we go to our other stories of the week, which will be the
equality of the league and a look on the strongest home/away sides.
Updated alternative tables:
We use the following measures:
TSR,
Total Shots Ratio, is a team’s share of
the total shots in their matches. This is defined as:
TSR=Total shots by team/Total shots by
team and opponent
SoTR, Shots on Target Ratio, is a team’s share of the total
shots on target in their matches. This is defined as:
SoTR=Total shots on target by
team/Total shots on target by team and opponent
PDO,
is a measure from hockey, that has been
applied to football. Our use of it is to evaluate how lucky/unlucky a team has
been during the season. PDO is defined as:
PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).
PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).
The table is sorted by SoTR, which is our
favourite indicator for quality.
For detailed reviews and tables from
previous weeks – click here.
Comments:
The SoTR metric is a nice measure for true
quality of a team (read this if you want more explanation). Therefore we would
like to call it a power ranking of
the league.
FC
Copenhagen are still number one on our ranking in
spite of their poor match against FC Vestsjælland. Their SoTR and TSR above 60%
are impressive though and they should be the prime contender to the
championship title along with FC Midtjylland. FC Midtjylland are
third on our ranking and the SoTR increased from last week after the crushing
of AGF. FC Midtjylland do not look as strong as FC Copenhagen, but they have
compensated by producing a higher defensive/offensive efficiency (measured by
their PDO). This “over performance” in efficiency is not likely to continue and
in that case FC Midtjylland’s first place is likely to get in jeopardy. The
same goes for AaB. They won
deservedly against Viborg (5-0), but they were highly efficient (scoring five
goals on seven attempts on target). They are in 5th place on our power ranking
(SoTR), but 2nd position on our luck ranking (PDO). The media tend to
get carried away by their recent performance; we believe that AaB should be
satisfied if they finish with a bronze medal.
Esbjerg and Brøndby are two
underachievers. Based on their ability to dominate the matches, Esbjerg and
Brøndby should both be near the front. But poor saving for Esbjerg and poor
finishing from Brøndby are the main reasons for the lack of success. Based on
our review of Esbjerg keeper, Rønnow, last week, it could seem like Esbjerg are
fundamentally underperforming because of his obvious weakness on set pieces.
Therefore you should not expect Esbjerg’s PDO to reach 1000 (average) unless
Esbjerg make a change in the winter break. For Brøndby, the poor finishing
could to some degree be blamed on striker Quincy Antipas, who has been very
inefficient. The question is whether Antipas has been unlucky or just a bad
finisher? Our guess is a combination, and then we should expect Brøndby to have
more “luck” in the spring.
FC
Nordsjælland are a team on the rise. If their PDO
increases they should finish in top 6. OB,
FC Vestsjælland and Randers
should face a mediocre season, but if they continue their effort and the luck
effect is fairly distributed, relegation should not be a subject.
The main relegation candidates seem to be AGF, SønderjyskE and Viborg.
AGF have been very volatile this autumn, but mostly bad. After finishing
the last two matches with a goal score of 1-7, they also moved towards the
bottom in our table. Measured on ability to dominate matches in terms of
chances they should go down. AGF have however already made deals for some
quality players, wherefore their true quality might change over the winter.
SønderjyskE have passed AGF on our power ranking. They have looked better in
the last three matches of the season and their PDO (luck) has increased as
well. If the PDO continues its rise towards 1000, SønderjyskE should have a
considerable chance for survival. Viborg are by far the weakest team in our
opinion. We have claimed this for some time and results are starting to prove
it. In five games, they have only gained one point. The relegation line is
getting close. Only their ridiculous PDO have kept them in the middle of the
table. This is mainly due to the efficiency of top scorer Thomas Dalgaard, but
we have seen the luck move in a different direction lately (although mostly
affecting the saving percentage). Over the last three matches we have seen the
difference in PDO between Viborg and SønderjyskE narrowing with 72 points. This
just proves our claim that PDO is a (mostly) random luck indicator that moves
towards 1000 over time.
Hypothesis 1: The Superliga 2013/2014 is
more equal than usually
Admitted, we have had a poor autumn with
our bets. Naturally you will start to look for explanations. One of our thoughts
was that the league is more difficult to predict this year, since teams are
getting more equal. We looked at the stats and got this:
So we summed up the last eight seasons at
the winter break. Winter break normally occurs after 17 to 20 matches. The draw
percentage has not been higher than this season. More than 30% is rarely seen
(well, not in the previous seven years) and a partial explanation for our poor
autumn, since we rarely predict draws.
No matter if we look at the difference
between first and last or third and tenth, it is also smaller than in the
previous years. This is also a solid argument for the increase in spectators
this autumn: every team has plenty to fight for.
The last measure is the number of teams
within five points of the relegation line (including the two underneath). This
year 8 (!) teams out of 12 are in genuine danger of relegation. This is also a
new record in recent years.
Conlusion:
On all measures, this year is the most equal in our
sample of eight years. This is naturally splendid for entertainment value, but
also signalling that betting on the Superliga this year is not just business as
usual.
Hypothesis 2: Are AaB the best home team
and FC Midtjylland the best away team?
If you base it on points, then yes! AaB
lead the home table, while FC Midtjylland lead the away table. But what if we
look at the team’s ability to dominate home or away matches. Let us first look
at home matches:
Based on our favourite metric, the Shots on
Target Ratio (SoTR), Esbjerg are actually the most dominant home team. They
tend to have almost 2/3 of all shots on target in their home matches. They only
get 1.33 points per game, which is quite poor based on their dominance. AaB are
actually only 4th based on this statistic (but still quite dominant in their
home matches). What is interesting is that home teams not only have dominance
in SoTR (52.72%) as expected, but also in PDO (1032). PDO were supposed to be a
luck indicator, but this illustrates that their might be an efficiency effect
of playing at home.
If we look at the away table:
A few things are remarkable in this table.
FC Copenhagen and Brøndby are relatively better away than at home, when it
comes to SoTR. FC Copenhagen and Brøndby are the two teams with the strongest
home support (based on the objective measure: number of spectators) so you
should expect them to be relatively strong at home instead (some might argue
that they have the best away support as well). The table brings bad news for
fans of SønderjyskE and OB since their teams are actually more dominant when
playing away. We have also found the main source of Viborg’s weakness: they are
by far the worst team when playing away.
Conclusion:
Based on ability to dominate matches, which over
time should be highly correlated with winning percentage, AaB are not the best
home team and FC Midtjylland not the best away team. We should instead expect
Esbjerg and FC Copenhagen to advance in the respective tables (ceteris
paribus).
Efficiency table
We round off with the efficiency table,
where AaB advanced significantly at the expense of Viborg. It is also worth
noticing that there are only two teams left in the good quadrant (upper right).
It is AaB and FC Midtjylland, number 1 and 2 – the lucky/efficient ones. Number
10, 11 and 12 (FC Vestsjælland, Esbjerg and SønderjyskE) are left in the bad
quadrant. This highlights the importance of efficiency/luck if you want to do
well in the league. At least over this short time interval.
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