Esbjerg-Randers
Friday 16/9 18.00
Esbjerg were experiencing an upward trend
in form, but that ended cruelly in Herning on Friday as they lost 3-0 and could
have lost even bigger. Esbjerg often have a hard time at FC Midtjylland, but
even so, you had expected more from them given their recent run. I still think
they have some offensive potential with Mensah and Andersen, but there is still
a long way to go defensively, although Nordvik is proving to be a fine central
defender. Esbjerg have really been poor at protecting own goal, but they will
find some confidence in their recent home performances, that have been
uplifting. Randers have had an excellent start to the season. They have played
pretty well, although the table is too kind to them. They have been quite lucky
defensively as they have not conceded as many goals as you would expect given
the chances allowed. They have the second lowest conceded goals, but they
surely don’t have the second best defence. It will be even weaker for this
match as Randers will miss suspended central defender and captain Fenger, while
the same also could happen with his fellow centre back Agesen who is under
review for kicking an opponent in the last match. I expect Agesen to get a ban
too, leaving Randers without their two regular starters, and with only one
obvious alternative in Bager, it is of course problematic. Randers look fairly
interesting offensively, where they have a lot of interesting weapons and main
striker Ishak finally seems to be finding some form.
I agree
with the current price setting in the market. Randers have showed way more than
Esbjerg during the season, so they deserved their favorite role. However, if I
were to bet here, I would go for the home win as I expect the likely absence of
two central defenders (including the captain) could potentially hurt Randers a
lot.
Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.87 at Pinnacle
Update: Agesen has received a ban, so Randers will have to line-up with a completely new central defence.
Silkeborg-AGF
Saturday 17/9 16.00
Silkeborg
got a deserved point in SønderjyskE in the weekend, so they must arrive here
with new confidence after an abysmal start to the season. They are still
without a win, and you could argue that they are the worst team in the league.
Their fundamental stats are actually not as cruel; although my perception also
is that Silkeborg are the weakest team. However, it is certain that Silkeborg
have not been very lucky until now. They have the lowest scoring percentage and
the lowest saving percentage in the league at the same time, which shows that
Silkeborg are very unlucky but perhaps also a bit stripped of confidence in the
decisive situations. They still suffer from some injuries, most notably for the
preferred goalkeeper Nørgaard and winger Skov, but things are starting to
improve. AGF took a vital win against FC Nordsjælland on Monday as they made a
comeback to win 3-1. AGF won due to superior physique, and they will try to do
the same to Silkeborg here, although they are not as fragile as FC Nordsjælland
(however, not the same counter attacking risk). AGF have a lot of solid and
hard working players combined with a very strong striker in Rasmussen who
scored a brace in the last match. I am a bit concerned by the many new-signings
of AGF, and I expect them to need some time to fully be in the best condition.
Silkeborg
have been unlucky and they certainly don’t deserve a -14 goal difference.
However, I still regard them as being the weakest side, they lack quality in
all areas, so it is hard to see them dominating AGF who have a very strong
midfield and a deadly striker. Odds have already drifted quite a bit, but I have
AGF as value down to around 2.05.
Recommendation: 2 – 2.13 at Pinnacle
FC Nordsjælland-SønderjyskE
Sunday 18/9 12.00
It is a
match between two sides who really need to get some success to boost the low
confidence. FC Nordsjælland have been bad over a longer period. They have
really struggled with many absences, and the bad results surely have affected
their very young squad. I have figures that suggest that FC Nordsjælland have
been the poorest squad of the season, as they simply don’t create enough in the
opposition box and take too many low quality long-range shots. However, I see
some reason for optimism as striker Ingvartsen seems to be finding form, while
new winger Asante has deadly pace. Furthermore, a number of injured players are
starting to return, for instance veteran winger Mikkelsen. SønderjyskE have
performed poorly this season and they have been far from the level of last
season. The main problem is that they invested a lot of energy in Europa League
and was eventually knocked out cruelly 5 minutes before clinching the group
stage. This has surely taken its toll on the squad and the question is when
they are mentally back. Looking at the squad, they still have a fairly decent
team and should be able to do better than currently. However, I don’t think
selling defensive midfielder Guira on the last transfer day will do good as his
contribution defensively was massive. SønderjyskE will be without strong
striker Bechmann who continues to be injured.
I don’t
agree with the price setting here. FC Nordsjælland do not have the same quality
as SønderjyskE, so I can’t make them favorites here. It is true that FC
Nordsjælland are usually very strong at home on the artificial pitch, but they
have just changed the surface, so it will be the first match here for both
teams. Furthermore, SønderjyskE love a match where the opposition wants
possession and they can just sit back and counter with pacey players like Uhre,
Absalonsen and Kroon. SønderjyskE also have a big advantage on set pieces, so I
see them as favorites here. Only concern is how deep the wound from Europa
League is; if they play like last weekend, they won’t win here.
Tip
of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.00 at Unibet
OB-FC
Midtjylland
Sunday 18/9 14.00
OB have disappointed so far. Yes, they have
been unlucky in many matches and certainly deserved more points, but they have
also had a pretty easy schedule. Now they are starting to face tougher
opposition and it did not start too well, when they lost very deservedly 2-0 at
FC Copenhagen. OB have a dangerous striker duo, but they have been firing
blanks so far. You should expect them to improve, but OB probably won’t create
as many chances in the upcoming matches. Defensively, they still have to work
on the structure and especially the backs are not of high quality. FC
Midtjylland finally made the turnaround and played a strong match against
Esbjerg last weekend. They won 3-0 and it was well deserved. They created a lot
of chances and van der Vaart also delivered a fine effort for 60 minutes. FC
Midtjylland should improve from here as they have a top 3 team in terms of
quality. They have allowed many easy goals, but I believe it to be more a
matter of luck than poor defensive quality. They have had several poor
performances during the season and there is some concern regarding the team
spirit of some players, so don’t expect FC Midtjylland to be super reliable.
I have a feeling that FC Midtjylland are
facing better times. They are stronger than OB, but OB should not be
underestimated. They are still a fine team and they could thrive in a role,
where they can lurk on counter-attacks. Despite my growing belief in FC
Midtjylland, Bet365 are an outlier with 3.40 for a home win, which I believe is
very slim value – it is quite a lot for OB to win at home.
Idea:
1 – 3.40 at Bet365
Update: OB will be without striker Jacobsen and left back Barrett. They lack a back-up solution for Barrett (he is already the back-up for injured Pereira) and Jacobsen is normally the most dangerous striker. With that in mind, I believe FC Midtjylland is value at 2.26 (Pinnacle)
Brøndby-Viborg
Sunday 18/9 16.00
Brøndby continue to impress. They took a
deserved and impressive win in Aalborg last weekend, and it is obvious that
they are playing with a lot of confidence at the moment. They were without
offensive midfielder Mukhtar, but managed to create a lot of chances despite
his absence. It could be more difficult here, against a more defensive-minded
team. Defensively, Brøndby have some injury problems with two central defenders
injured (Hermansson and Albrechtsen), why it is uncertain who will partner
Röcker in the defence here. Brøndby have played remarkably well, and their
current position is not due to luck. However, I sense that they could have some
issues against teams that are defensive-minded and won’t give up space for
Brøndby to practice their direct style. Viborg delivered a poor match against
Horsens, where the dropped a 2-0 lead to lose 2-4. I don’t think the injury to
winger Thychosen should be underestimated as his alternatives are far from his
offensive quality. That leaves Viborg a bit shorthanded offensively, although
they still have quality weapons in Park, Deble and Kamper. Nevertheless, it is
significantly easier for the opponents to only have to focus on three players
than four. The rest of the Viborg team is fairly defensive-minded and typically
quite solid, although this was not the case against Horsens, where they allowed
9 shots from the penalty box after only averaging 6 shots in the previous (and
“more difficult”) matches.
Given the quality of Brøndby this season, I
can find small value in backing them here. The risk elements are that Viborg
will be very compact and that gifted players like Deble and Park are capable of
making something happen – so no recommendation here.
Idea:
1 – 1.57 at Tipico
Horsens-FC
Copenhagen
Sunday 18/9 18.00
Horsens have performed way above
expectations. They have been lucky in several matches, but their confidence is
remarkable. They were down 2-0 in Viborg, but managed to find the strength to
return. You would probably not see Silkeborg do that at the moment. I have
Horsens noted as the luckiest team at the moment. Their scoring rate is crazy
high. They are scoring on 44% of their shots on target, while the league
average is 32%. Sorry, Horsens striker, but I don’t think it is just because
you are just superior finishers. Dannevang is also doing a fine job in goal,
and it also helps to win tight matches. Overall, I think Horsens will drop in
the table, when luck starts to even out, although you should not underestimate
the improving effect of confidence. FC Copenhagen are the best team in the
league, although I think Brøndby have been challenging them lately. FC
Copenhagen have not been as efficient lately, which is likely to be case for
their minor slip in results. The double focus on Champions League and Superliga
could also have its cost – and you could potentially see them resting a few
players here given a very tough schedule ahead. Nevertheless, FC Copenhagen
should still be big favourites here as their second string is also good enough
to challenge for the title.
So the luckiest team in the league against
the best team. The price has already dropped a bit for the away team, and given
that I am uncertain that we will see them in strongest formation here, I simply
cannot back them below 1.50. As mentioned, Horsens have been very efficient,
but they have created very few chances. On the other hand, FC Copenhagen are
the best at avoiding dangerous chances in the league, so I think a clean sheet
for FC Copenhagen could be awaiting here.
Recommendation:
Horsens under 0.5 goals – 2.10 at Pinnacle
Lyngby-AaB
Monday 19/9 19.00
Lyngby have played fairly well lately, but
failed to harvest points. They have been somewhat unlucky, like they were a bit
lucky in the early matches of the season. I have argued that Lyngby take to
many shots from the distance. That looked a bit better in the last match
against Randers, where they just failed to be efficient. They have a decent
squad consisting of many veteran players and they seem very motivated. AaB’s
lucky streak ended in the weekend. They lost deservedly to Brøndby. AaB have
earned a lot of points from very tight matches, where they could just as easily
have lost. They have made many changes in the summer break and they are still
working to get it into full function. Therefore the current amount of points is
above expectations. I think they lack a bit power offensively. Apart from the
speed of Bassogog they have not delivered much until now. They will hope that
Enevoldsen starts to find some of the form shown last season. Peruvian
offensive player Flores is doubtful after missing the last match. He is also a
player capable of making things happen offensively. AaB’s force compared to Lyngby
is their ability to finish in the box, where they are currently ranked in the
top of the league. Apart from this, it should be fairly even.
I think this will be a fairly even match. I
hold AaB as favourites here. Although their offensive production is not much
greater than Lyngby, they have the ability to finish it off in positions where
it matters. Despite of this, I think that Lyngby’s improving form and AaB’s end
of luck could mean something for the morale here. I think Unibet are a too
generous with their price for home win (DNB) and I think it is worth a small
shot.
Recommendation:
1 (DNB) – 2.48 at Unibet
Update: Central defender Holgersson has received a late ban from the last match. Not good for AaB as he has been the leader of the defense and also shown his strength on set pieces.
