AaB-OB preview

Friday 15/5 18.30

AaB (5th) need to win this one if they want to play continental football from the winter break. They are 5 points after Randers in the hunt for the decisive 4th place. AaB will find some optimism in their play in the recent matches. They have looked livelier offensively, and the midfield has showed some of qualities that made AaB an outstanding team last season. In the last match, the absence of midfielder Risgaard was visible, but the veteran midfielder should return here. In that case AaB will field the strongest offensive team. Defensively, they have some problems since the two normal starters in the central defence, Kenneth Emil Petersen and Rasmus Thelander, are both out. The replacements are the two rather young players, Jakob Blåbjerg and Kasper Pedersen. Individually, they have done very well, but they might struggle without a senior player at their side to dictate the defence. OB (8th) are perhaps the only team in the league without anything specific to play for. They have a good distance to the relegation line and 4th place also seems to far away. Instead, the players should be motivated to make a good effort against AaB head coach Kent Nielsen, since he will be the new OB head coach from July. OB played a very good game against FC Midtjylland last weekend, where they were very efficient on set pieces. Compared to the last match, they will be without the strong central midfielder Hallgrimur Jonasson who is banned. He is likely to be replaced by a youngster, either Matias Greve or Jens Jakob Thomasen. Both are very talented players, but also young and unproven. More importantly OB risk being without offensive star player Rasmus Falk, who got a knock in the last match. He is expected to play but on painkillers. Right back Håkon Skogseid should return after missing the last match with an injury, but he is not the most important regular.

AaB are a strong team when the midfield is playing at its best. With Risgaard back the chance of that occurring surely increases. OB have nothing specific to play for and we suspect they might be complacent after the win over FC Midtjylland. The most of AaB’s home wins are by two goals or more, while the most of OB’s away losses are by two goals or more. We feel it is worth taking a chance and gamble on a big AaB win here. They won’t stop attacking if they get the 1-0 advantage.

Recommendation: 1 (0-1) – 3.30 at Tipico

Hobro-FC Vestsjælland preview

Sunday 17/5 14.00

Hobro (6th) still have an outside chance of continental qualification, which they will of course pursue. However, this game marks a more important chance. If Hobro wins here, they are certain to avoid the relegation that looked unavoidable at the start of the season. The home team should find plenty of motivation for that. However, they will have to do without the vital defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg who deserves much credit for his work rate and ability to shield his defence. Some have pointed on Damborg as the most underrated player in the league. He is out with an injury, and although replacement Thomas Hansen is no newcomer, he is still far from the level and importance of Damborg. Another important player who might miss the game is attacker Quincy Antipas who has a foot injury. Antipas is very important for Hobro’s offensive production. FC Vestsjælland (11th) have to win this match, otherwise you will have to be very optimistic to believe in survival. However, the match falls just three days after a 120 minute cup final, which FC Vestsjælland eventually lost 2-3 to FC Copenhagen. A tough blow for FC Vestsjælland who made a good effort, but have squandered a lot of energy. Captain Henrik Madsen left the match with an injury and is doubtful here, while Osama Akharraz is also doubtful. Both are important midfielders, but FC Vestsjælland have some decent alternatives in Marc Dal Hende and Jan Kristiansen. Strong left back Michael Lumb is likely to need a rest due to a fragile knee. The main thing is whether FC Vestsjælland can find the energy to win a match against a very physical opponent as Hobro. They have showed promising things during the last month and they will look to continue that here.

FC Vestsjælland have had a very tight schedule and after 120 minutes on Thursday, this match will be very difficult. They have plenty of quality, but it is difficult to see how they will cope with the physical superiority of Hobro as the match proceeds. But look out for latest information on Antipas, he is vital for the quality of Hobro’s offense.

Idea: 1 (AH +0) – 1.80 at Unibet

UPDATE: Antipas is out for the home team, which limits their offensive quality.

Silkeborg-Brøndby preview

Sunday 17/5 17.00

Silkeborg (12th) are now officially relegated. They will however try to find some motivation in the visit from Brøndby who always equals a match with many spectators. They will have to do this without two banned regulars. Right back Frank Hansen and central midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen are both banned. Not the best outset, but neither of them has played great in 2015. Team top goalscorer Nicolaj Agger could return after missing the last match with an injury. Silkeborg have got the most out of 2015. They have managed to earn some points despite of being dominated in almost every game. Brøndby have been looking great recently. The better pitches are obviously suiting their small and technical players. They were very unlucky not to beat AaB last weekend, where a win would otherwise have put them on three wins in a row. They are main favourites for the 3rd place and in our opinion they are the best playing team in the league currently. Brøndby will be without the two veterans Thomas Kahlenberg and Johan Elmander, but they have done fine without them recently.

It is a match between team who is currently playing the league’s worst football against the team who is playing the best football. This should be a clear win for the away team. Brøndby should also have the quality to make this a win by more than one goal. Last weekend Silkeborg’s defence collapsed completely against the pacey Esbjerg forwards (conceded 5 goals) and something similar could happen here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH -1) – 2.02 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen preview

Sunday 17/5 19.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) lost last weekend, which have made this match more exciting. However, if they just manage not to lose here, the title should be theirs. However, they have a lot of injuries to cope with. And on top of this strong winger Sylvester Igboun is banned. Igboun has scored seven goals this season and is one of the best players in the league. In defence, three out of four regulars are injured. However, the crazy thing is that the physio reports that all of them have a chance to return on Sunday although this is unlikely. But look for the names Erik Sviatchenko, Jim Larsen and Kristian Bach Bak on the team sheet. If they are back, FC Midtjylland’s chances should increase remarkably. If not, FC Midtjylland will field a rather young defence that proved their vulnerability in the 3-1 loss in Odense last weekend. On the positive side is the potential return of winger Pione Sisto who is finally in training after being out for all of 2015. The ban for Igboun could force FC Midtjylland to use him instantly. FC Copenhagen (2nd) won the cup final on Thursday after a 120-minute match against FC Vestsjælland. FC Copenhagen played another weak match, but they have been able to win despite of not impressing in several matches. The secret is a solid back line and a good push at the end of matches. However, they have suffered so many injuries lately that the few players remaining have been pushed very hard. The team starting on Sunday is likely to be fatigued from the start. Worryingly, the only offensive force remaining for FC København, Nicolai Jørgensen left the cup final with an injury and should be very doubtful here.

It is a weird match for the title, between two teams who are heavily plagued by injuries. However, we have a feeling that FC Midtjylland might turn up with several of the defenders with minor injuries due to the importance of the match. In that case, their team should be superior to FC Copenhagen and adding the fatigue of the FC Copenhagen players, and FC Midtjylland should be clear favourites here. Do not forget that they have won all 14 home games this season. They would love to underline that they are the right champions at home in front of a full stadium. Half draw insurance, since this would not be a bad result for the home team.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.825 at Bet365

UPDATE: Jørgensen and Gislason new absences for FC Copenhagen, who will start with very few offensive minded players. Sviatchenko is back in the line-up for FC Midtjylland.

FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg

Monday 18/5 18.00

FC Nordsjælland (7th) are six points after the important 4th place. It is still possible, but it seems improbable given FC Nordsjælland’s poor display in the last two matches. They have lost two away matches at Randers and FC Vestsjælland, where they once again showed how weak they are when they are not playing at home on the artificial pitch. The last match gave some extra problems since the offensive ace, Uffe Bech, left the match with an injury, which will keep him out here. Bech is the team top goalscorer with nine goals and he is a great player, but the expected replacement David Moberg-Karlsson has also done well when given the chance. Captain Patrick Mtiliga is expected to return on the left back, while central defender Andreas Maxsø returns in the defence. Both are very important additions that will stabilise the back line. Esbjerg (10th) got some distance to the relegation line with the 5-2 win against Silkeborg last weekend, but they still need every point they can get. The match showed that the team has a top level, which is great, but also a back line that looks very fragile. The central defenders are often too aggressive leaving space behind them. Offensively, Esbjerg have some exciting players. The on loan Swede Daniel Larsson is playing great at the moment, and deserves much credit despite not finding the net. His speed has been problematic for every opponent in the recent matches. Another weapon is Mick van Buren who looks very sharp at the moment. The Dutch striker came on as a substitute last weekend and scored twice and made two assists in just 45 minutes. He looks really fired up to prove he has quality. Add to this that Esbjerg have some wingers who are also goal seeking: Mohammed Fellah, Emil Lyng and Kevin Mensah (but he is reported very doubtful). Influential central midfielder Magnus Lekven returns here.

It is a match between two teams who have some great offensive players and perhaps not the most convincing defences. At the same time, it is not a match where one of the teams are expected to sit back and defend. Both will go full gas for a win here, so we should have a nice match in store. FC Nordsjælland should be favourites here, they are strong at the home field, but we do not find value in the odds for a winner. Instead, we find nice value in an over bet. This has the potential to be a really entertaining match!

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 1.98 at Betfair

SønderjyskE-Randers preview

Monday 18/5 20.15

SønderjyskE (9th) are not out of the danger zone just yet. They have a rather difficult schedule left, but one win will probably be enough to save them. They will find some optimism in the returning players. Striker Tommy Bechmann was back in the line-up in the last match and with him on the pitch the attack looked more dangerous. Winger Johan Absalonsen could also return after missing a couple of matches with an injury. SønderjyskE tend to struggle in home games. They are not coping well when the pressure is on them to create the match. The result is only two wins in thirteen home games. Randers (4th) are in the vital position for continental qualification. It will be the main goal to keep this position and the Randers players will surely be motivated. Randers have looked strong over the recent matches, they have been better organised and more confident. However, three players will miss the match due to bans: assist leader Kasper Fisker, team top goalscorer Mikael Ishak and central midfielder Nicolai Poulsen. Randers have fine depth, so they are actually replaceable to some degree. In attack, Nicolai Brock-Madsen has used the chance to promote himself as a great alternative with three goals in the last three matches. Central defender Mads Agesen is also out.

SønderjyskE have not won in the last six league matches, and although the form is definitely on an upward slope, they are still not a frightening home side. Randers on the other hand are in good form, very motivated and have a team that seems just a little bit better (despite of the absences). Small stakes on away win here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 1.80 at Unibet

Week 28 round-up

The good news: we had a brilliant Friday! The bad news: the rest was not good. We got off to a good start with a won Tip of the Week plus a nice on our goalscorer #Twitbets. However, from then on we did not manage to win a single bet, and the total is a slight minus. Especially the lack of luck for our recommendations was tough. Brøndby dominated AaB entirely and had the lead until a freaky own goal led to a 1-1 result. Brøndby dominated the shots on target statistic with 9-0. It is really frustrating that we are SO unlucky at the moment. The second recommendation, regarding a FC Vestsjælland not to lose, was affected badly by pre-match news: injuries for Madsen and Akharraz plus a loss for FC Midtjylland which suddenly (and unexpectedly) gave FC Copenhagen some motivation. The end result was a even match, where FC Copenhagen scored on set pieces in a match that had few chances. We just have to keep going and hope that things soon improve for the better. Still undecided when the next bets will arrive, could happen anytime from Wednesday night to Friday.

Randers-FC Nordsjælland preview

Friday 6/5 18.30

Randers (4th) committed some stupid personal mistakes last weekend against FC Midtjylland. Randers had a 1-1 result and were starting to look in control, when two stupid red cards wrecked the match for them (ended 5-2). Due to the red cards, team top goalscorer Mikael Ishak and team top assist provider Kasper Fisker are both banned. Ishak should be replaceable with Brock-Madsen or Djiby Fall who both could be starters for most other Superliga teams. The absence of Fisker is more problematic. Randers will probably use the speedy Borring instead. Central defender Mads Agesen is out with an injury. Alternative Jeppe Tverskov has done fine in his absence. Randers have a physical strong team and they should be very motivated to get a good result here to stay in the hunt for European spots. FC Nordsjælland (6th) looked very poor at FC Vestsjælland (lost 2-1) last weekend. Despite of the great offensive players, FC Nordsjælland were unable to create much, and it was once again visible who easily they are dominated in away games against a physical opponent. Therefore they could get in problems here against Randers. Especially since central defender Andreas Maxsø is banned and influential left back Patrick Mtiliga (captain) is very doubtful. FC Nordsjælland only have four quality defenders in the squad, so it is very problematic to potentially be without half of them. They will have to use some young unproven players or defensive midfielders.

Randers have dominated the last two home H2H’s. In total, the shots on target statistic says: 37-12 for the two matches. Randers are a strong home team and holds a home SoTR of 64% (3rd in league), while FC Nordsjælland is rather weak away with an away SoTR of 42% (8th in league). Randers strong offensive weapons should be able to exploit the defensive absences of FC Nordsjælland. At the same time it is difficult to see how FC Nordsjælland shall cope with the physical superiority of Randers in the centre of the pitch. This look like a great bet on a home win, and is therefore our Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: 1 - 2.30 at Danske Spil

UPDATE: Borring is out, so Lundberg could be used on the right flank with Fall being a new guy in attack. Still a very strong attack! Mtiliga is confirmed out for FC Nordsjælland.