SønderjyskE-Esbjerg

Friday 28/11 18.30

SønderjyskE (9th) lost for the first time in ten matches last weekend (1-0 at Brøndby). It was actually a fairly even match, and the SønderjyskE players could feel hard done afterwards. SønderjyskE are a solid team at the moment. They are difficult to beat. It is only a question of them being a bit unlucky with not being positioned higher, since they have failed to get enough wins out of their fine performances. For the match against Esbjerg, they will benefit from the return of skilful striker Marvin Pourie from suspension. With him back SønderjyskE can field a very gifted offense. Defensively they will have to find a replacement for the suspended left back Erik Marxen who has played all minutes this season. Esbjerg (8th) have, like SønderjyskE, not earned points according to how they have played. Esbjerg have been in the lead in many matches, but way too often allowed the opponents to get back. Esbjerg have a great team that should be capable of a top half position. Offensively they have some strong weapons in Martin Pusic and Jakob Ankersen. Defensively they are a bit challenged for this match with defensive chief, the central defender Michael Jakobsen, suspended. Esbjerg will then have to field a new combination with Gomes and Stenderup at the back, and although they are fine defenders, none are natural leaders.

SønderjyskE away is often a difficult place for Esbjerg. As seen some weeks back in Randers, Esbjerg struggle when they face physical opponents on a poor pitch (Esbjerg have several small and technical players). SønderjyskE’s pitch is usually quite poor in late autumn (probably not a coincidence). SønderjyskE’s overall quality should be inferior to Esbjerg, but based on the pitch and the way this match will be played, we actually see SønderjyskE as having a great chance of winning.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.875 at Bet365

Leaguespy preview for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41298&a=33624 

Silkeborg-OB

Saturday 29/11 17.00

Silkeborg (12th) are now ten points below the second lowest ranked team. They have only earned four points in 15 matches. There is only one final outcome: relegation. Confidence must be very low in Silkeborg after the team just lost in a 120-minute cup match in Randers (0-1) on Wednesday. Silkeborg can now only focus on salvaging some honour during the rest of the season. Silkeborg’s problem is that they are simply too weak in the deciding situations (scoring and conceding). As seen in Parken last weekend, they are indeed capable of creating opportunities, but their finishing is just embarrassing. Important midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen is doubtful for this match. OB (10th) jumped above the relegation line after a deserved win (1-0) against FC Nordsjælland (who fielded a semi B-team). OB have improved since Ove Pedersen took charge six games ago, and the doomsday prophecies are no longer credible. Pedersen has changed formation to a 4-4-2 and are using some players differently, for instance Lasse Kryger as front man. It appears to be working for now, although OB still are some way from where they want to be. OB have for once a relatively fit side, which should provide them with some consistency.

The match will undoubtedly be very even in terms of ball possession and shots fired, but OB have more quality in each end of the pitch, which we believe will be the deciding factor here.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.60 at Betsafe

Leaguespy preview:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41299&a=33624 

Hobro-Randers

Sunday 30/11 14.00

Hobro (7th) are a very entertaining team. They always fight with great passion, and although their quality is often inferior, they manage to win some matches. This time they face their local rivals Randers, and the motivation will surely be high. The question is whether it is enough. Hobro appears to succeed when they face teams that are physically inferior. Randers will probably not be such a team. Nevertheless, Hobro should find some confidence in the fact that they have started scoring in recent matches (six goals in last three matches). Right back Jesper Bøge is doubtful for the match. Randers (2nd) are a rock-solid team that even on bad days manage to take slim wins (as seen last weekend against FC Vestsjælland or midweek against Silkeborg). They have so much confidence that they just keep on pushing on in their physical style until the opponents gives away a goal. At the same time they have been strong at the back – only three times (in 15 games) have the allowed two or more goals. Randers will be without suspended right-winger Kasper Fisker, a creative force. They should benefit from the return of left midfielder Elmar Bjarnason from suspension. Apart from Fisker’s absence they have a full squad to choose from.

4.70 look like a lot for a Hobro home win. The problem is just that Randers appears to be a very poor match for them. It is difficult to find the arguments for a Hobro win, since Randers appears superior in all aspects. Therefore we would rather pick the away win here, although the price is not outstanding.

Idea: 2 – 1.90 at Betsafe

FC Nordsjælland-Brøndby

Sunday 30/11 17.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) lost deservedly 1-0 in Odense last weekend. Not surprising since they were without six players (four suspensions, one injury and one on the bench due to failure to meet on time). Five of the players should return here, why FC Nordsjælland should deliver an entirely different performance. Only strong winger Joshua John’s participation remains in doubt. However, truth is that FC Nordsjælland have struggled over the past matches, especially since their force, the wingers, have not performed in a satisfying level. Brøndby (4th) have actually not been overly impressive lately, but have managed to clinch seven points in the last four matches. They have looked solid at the back (when Agger is playing that is), but lacked some firepower in front. They have only scored two goals in the last four matches, and the ones they scored were only due to odd deflections by opponents’ defenders. Brøndby should have a full squad to choose from here.

FC Nordsjælland are traditionally a strong home team, while Brøndby have been weak in away games. A home win seems interesting, but with the poor momentum of FC Nordsjælland it is not actually interesting. Instead we conclude that the two sides offensive struggles will lead to a low-scoring game.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.91 at Unibet

AaB-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 30/11 19.00

AaB (5th) delivered a terrible performance last weekend in FC Midtjylland (lost 2-0). It was terrible since AaB were looking to take advantage of several FC Midtjylland absences, but instead ended up losing in a match, which the opponent dominated from start to finish. AaB had actually been improving until that match, but it seems like they still struggle a bit with the stability. AaB were without central defender Rasmus Thelander in the match, and he is crucial for the defensive stability. AaB will try to find comfort in the strong performances they deliver at home, and they will undoubtedly have great support Sunday night. Offensive midfielder Thomas Enevoldsen is suspended, while Thelander is doubtful. FC Copenhagen (3rd) are not much better than AaB at the moment. They are also very inconsistent in their performances, although the inconsistency is only a matter of poor or okay performances. They rarely leave you with the impression of having played a really good match. What is lacking? Offense! FC Copenhagen have only scored 15 goals in 15 matches. That is the tied second lowest. Not what to expect from the team with the highest wage budget in the league. Central midfielders Delaney and Poulsen are suspended, but FC Copenhagen have fine alternatives. Notice that both teams played Europa League Thursday night (after this was posted).

The bookies are well aware that this will be a low-scoring match, so the value in this outcome seems to be gone. Instead we would go for an AaB win. AaB are a strong home team, and we do not see why FC Copenhagen deserves to be favourites after a streak of average performances. As a bonus, the last time they met it was also in Aalborg and it ended with a home win (1-0).

Idea: 1 (AH +0) – 2.10 at Bet365

FC Midtjylland-FC Vestsjælland

Monday 1/12 19.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) are doing a great job at the moment. The win last weekend was extraordinary since they defeated (and outplayed) the defending champions despite of suffering from several important absences (2-0 against AaB). For this match the suspended duo of Patrick Banggaard and Petter Andersson will return, while midfielder Jakob Poulsen and striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen could return (still doubtful though). On the other hand, Rilwan Hassan and Izunna are suspended, but they have been less important in this season that the ones who return. FC Midtjylland have such squad depth, it is really remarkable. In the last match, reserves Marcos Ureña and Kristoffer Olsson did a great job, and coach Riddersholm has some positive problems ahead of this match. While FC Midtjylland are, by far, the team that creates the most chances, FC Vestsjælland (11th) are the poorest team in this sense. They have lost three matches in a row, and they really look demoralised. They are not creating anything offensively, and at the back they do not have the solidity that made them famous last season. Adding to insult, they will be without two of their best players (if not the best). Striker and team top goalscorer Rasmus Festersen (6 out of 15 team goals) and defensive giant Jean-Claude Bozga are both suspended. FC Vestsjælland have lost seven out of eight away games (only beating Silkeborg luckily), while FC Midtjylland have won all their eight home games.

We only see one outcome in this match, and that is a home win. There is nothing to find optimism in for FC Vestsjælland, and we would actually be surprised if FC Midtjylland are not able to win by more than one goal here. If you are a risk taker you could consider a three+ goal win.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -1.5) – 2.12 at Unibet

UPDATE: Poulsen and Duncan both called up for FC Midtjylland. This looks impossible for FC Vestsjælland.

FREE Leaguespy access for the match available here:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41303&a=33624

Week 15 round-up (14/15)

Another great weekend (+28% return)! 7th weekend in a row with positive profits. This weekend with success for all our recommendations and #Twitbets (including our Tip of the Week). We have now clinched an all-time profit of +17.59 units (+5% return). Only negative thing is that our Tip of the Week have underperformed a lot, but we aim to change that in the future! So stay tuned - two more rounds in 2014 remains!

FC Vestsjælland-Randers

Friday 21/11 18.30

FC Vestsjælland (10th) have been showing some terrible football in the recent matches. If they had lost the last six matches it would not have been unfair, but they somehow managed to claim four points in the process. Bottom-line is that they are not performing very well, and in terms of current strength we would consider calling them the weakest in the league. What is not working? Well, first and foremost is the team’s traditional force, the defence, not well organized at the moment. Especially if FC Vestsjælland go behind, it is almost certain that they will lose (often with several goals). Offensive they have the speed of Rasmus Festersen as the main strength and he does a good job, but that is simply not enough when the rest of the team are experiencing such a poor period. Randers (2nd) are a completely different story. It must be fun to be a Randers fan at the moment, because no matter whom they face, they have a good chance of winning. They are on the other hand well organized, and possess in general much more quality. Offensively they are still too inconsistent, but with the return of Nicolai Brock-Madsen (scored for Denmark U21 against Italy in midweek) to old strength Randers should have several weapons in the toolbox.  Randers face one concern for the upcoming match and that is the absence of left midfielder Elmar Bjarnason due to suspension. Bjarnason has had a great season and he is excellent at holding up the ball and securing midfield stability. Alternatives do not have the same qualities: Jonas Kamper is very offensive minded, while Adama Tamboura has defensive skills but lack on-the-ball skills. Randers should benefit from the return of central defender Mads Agesen from suspension. With him back Randers will again field the strong central defence duo with Agesen and Fenger.

At the moment we feel there is a quality difference here, and we believe that Randers should be capable of winning every second away match in the current situation. This implies fine value in the away win, and we therefore post this as a recommendation.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.05 at Unibet

For Leaguespy access for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41207&a=33624