Hobro-FC Midtjylland

Friday 3/10 18.30

Hobro (4th) are the success story that seemingly has no end. We backed them last weekend against Silkeborg, but in truth they were very lucky to salvage anything from that game (2-2). They have been so efficient until now. On 40 shots on target they have scored 15 goals – an average team would only have scored 10. Our stats also place Hobro as the, by far, luckiest team in the league (by having a position which is not in line with the chance creating ability). They have some quality offensive players in Hvilsom and Antipas, but in truth it is a team of players that were deemed short of expectations in other Superliga clubs. At some point reality should catch up with Hobro. It is even more likely on Friday since Hobro will be without their suspended defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg who deserves much credit for his ability to spoil the opponents offense. FC Midtjylland (1st) are in the lead, and it is well deserved. The squad depth of FC Midtjylland is extraordinary, and with the good lead to expected main rivals FC Copenhagen, Brøndby and AaB they stand a great chance of earning the championship title. They were dominant last weekend against FC Vestsjælland (1-0) who were in total survival mode. FC Midtjylland clearly lacked some power upfront, where striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen got his first minutes after an injury period. He should improve here. In the midfield FC Midtjylland have so many quality players that it must be a huge challenge for coach Riddersholm to name the starting eleven. Especially winger Sylvester Igboun is in great form, and will be a handful for the Hobro defense. FC Midtjylland could be without central defender Jim Larsen and right back Kristian Bak Bach, but that should not cause major concerns.

For us there should be quality difference here. We backed Hobro last weekend since we expected that the momentum effect could lead them to dominate bottomplaced Silkeborg. Instead they were outplayed, and against the league number one we cannot see any other outcome than Hobro being outplayed again. FC Midtjylland should win this match if they intend on winning the title.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 1.95 at Unibet

UPDATE: FCM winger Rilwan Hassan is injured. He will be replaced by Pione Sisto who is a strong replacement, but it is a small minus for FC Midtjylland.

OB-Silkeborg

Saturday 4/10 17.00

OB (11th) arrive to this vital relegation clash with a new head coach. Troels Bech was fired during the week, and new head coach is the experienced Ove Pedersen (head coach in FC Vestsjælland last season). Pedersen will probably be focussed on the defending here, since he lacks time to make many changes offensively. Most empirical studies have shown that a change of coach leads to poorer results in the subsequent matches, but Pedersen is a solid coach with experience in these during the season coach changes (has done it twice before). However, expecting OB to start playing great football is not likely though. OB will be without young midfielders Mikkel Desler and Rasmus Falk plus central defender Daniel Høegh. Central defender Lasse Nielsen should return to the squad here. Silkeborg (12th) have not won yet. They should have done so last weekend against Hobro, who they dominated for most of the match. On the bright side they got striker Nicolaj Agger on the score sheet for the first time of the season, and this could probably give him more confidence, because his finishing has been horrendous. Silkeborg have a solid team, and it is not a walk in the park to beat them (have not lost a match by more than two goals). No reported injuries or suspensions here.

OB with a new coach will primarily want this match to end without a defeat. Afterwards Pedersen will have time to implement his ideas in the two weeks until next match. Silkeborg are a solid team that lack killer mentality, why they have not won yet. This stinks of a draw. Let us point out that OB have drawed 3 out of 9 matches and Silkeborg 4 out of 9 matches (and that the current league draw average is 33.3% highlighting the current equality of the league). For us, 3.50 for a draw is a really nice price!

Recommendation: X – 3.50 at Tipico
Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.94 at Betfair 

FC Vestsjælland-SønderjyskE

Sunday 5/10 13.00

FC Vestsjælland (8th) are a difficult size. They have been really poor in most away matches and lost all five of them. When they play at home they are a different team however. Here they have earned three wins and one draw, and if they had won all four no one would have said it was unfair. What to make of this? First of all, the home wins have been against opponents primarily from the lower end of the table, while the away losses have been against teams primarily from the upper half. FC Vestsjælland have a solid team with many experienced players. The addition of Anders Kure to the defence is a clear strengthening, and we believe that FC Vestsjælland should allow fewer goals in the future (currently “leads” the league in conceded goals). Central defender Oliver Lund is suspended, but Anders Østli is a fine back up. SønderjyskE (9th) are on the rise. They have four draws in a row (1-1), and the impression is that they could easily have won a few more matches. It is especially the offense that has experienced a great improvement since the start of the season. Players have returned from injury and striker Marvin Pourie has arrived from FC Copenhagen. We expect the skilled German to score his first league goal soon. No reported injuries or suspensions for SønderjyskE.

FC Vestsjælland have been in great home form, but primarily against teams in poor form. SønderjyskE are improving for every match at the moment. We are a bit tempted to place a bet on the away side, but we feel that the draw is even more interesting (maybe the 5th 1-1 match in a row for SønderjyskE?). A draw would be satisfactory for both and the price is fine.

Idea: X – 3.50 at Betfair

Randers-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 5/10 15.00

Randers (3rd) are having a great season. They have been very solid at the back (three clean sheets in a row). Offensively they lack a striker in top form, but the rest of the pitch is characterized by stability and continuity. Randers are a very physical team, but the right hand side with Thomsen and Fisker have some skills in breaking through the opposite backline. No reported suspensions or injuries for Randers. FC Nordsjælland (2nd) are also doing remarkably well. They have so much confidence at the moment and they have continually shown that conceding a goal does not put them out. Their success is primarily due to the strong form of wingers Uffe Bech and Joshua John, who are really doing a great job. They will be difficult to contain even for Randers’ solid backline. FC Nordsjælland lack physique in the midfield, and in previous H2H’s they have been dominated in this part by the great Randers physique. No reported injuries or suspensions for FC Nordsjælland.

Randers are a solid home team, and they are rarely dominated in Randers. FC Nordsjælland are having a great season, but are normally not known as a strong away team (they prefer their artificial pitch in Farum). Randers should be slight favourites here, so we pick the home win (draw no bet version).

Idea: 1 (DNB) – 1.81 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-Esbjerg

Sunday 5/10 17.00

FC Copenhagen (5th) are showing glimpses of progress. Much is however dependent on the fitness of key midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen, and this might be his first appearance in the starting line-up for a while (cannot play a full match though). Jørgensen has some offensive skills that the rest of the squad cannot match at the moment, and without him the team has limited offensive punch. Especially since lone striker Andreas Cornelius is on quite a cold streak (has not scored a regular goal in eleven matches (including European matches))! That being said FC Copenhagen are over the worst injury issues, and they can field a strong defence and a strong midfield. Esbjerg (10th) are suffering from the effect of not finishing off matches. They have lost many points in this season by being unable to maintain a lead. The starting eleven is strong and much better than the current 10th position, and at some point they should start winning some matches. This is however maybe not the best place to start, but if anyone were to do it, it is probably Esbjerg’s strong counter attackers (Esbjerg have not lost away to FC Copenhagen in the last three matches). Esbjerg have no injury or suspension concerns.

Is Jørgensen playing? That is a very important question and vital for how the percentages are placed here. Therefore we would not put too much on the line at this time. If anything we would pick Esbjerg not to lose, since FC Copenhagen have scoring issues and Esbjerg are not a team that is easily defeated.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.08 at Bet365

UPDATE: FCK's Antonsson injured. Amartey will be moved to central defence. Nicolai Jørgensen is playing from start upfront. Goals in store?

Brøndby-AaB

Sunday 5/10 19.00

Brøndby (7th) showed promising glimpses in the 2-2 match in Esbjerg last weekend. Brøndby have not been living up to pre-season expectations, and a number of last minute signings clearly needed some time to get into the team. One of them, striker Teemu Pukki, played his first really good match and caused a lot of trouble for the Esbjerg backline. If he maintains that level he will be a great signing. Brøndby have a number of quality players, and they should improve their position in the standings. Based on our statistics on chance domination Brøndby are one of the strongest home teams (placed third). No reported injuries or suspensions. AaB (6th) are like Brøndby stuck in a position that is not aligned with expectations. AaB have been far from the level from last season, and especially the creative contribution of Kasker Kusk (now Twente) is missed. In fact, AaB are shockingly poor in terms of creating chances. Based on our stats they are together with Hobro and OB the among the poorest teams in the league. AaB have been very poor in the away matches (where they have only faced “easy” opponents: FC Vestsjælland, Silkeborg, OB and SønderjyskE): 3 draws and 1 loss. Worse is that their chance creation in these away matches have been abysmal: AaB had 12 shots on target and allowed 29 shots on target in the four matches. It is not only the absence of Kusk that causes problem. The strikers are not very sharp at the moment (one (penalty) goal in the last three matches). Furthermore, the situation is even worse with the suspension for the captain, central midfielder Rasmus Würtz. Without him AaB lack their leader, a very important player for the stability of the team. On the plus side left back Donny Gorter and right winger Frederik Børsting return from injury (both are nothing more than rotation players though). Worth noting that AaB play a Europa League match against Rio Ave on Thursday.

Brøndby showed some promising things in a difficult away match against Esbjerg last weekend, and at home with great support on a Sunday night they should dominate a depressed AaB team. AaB have been poor all season long, and with Würtz out we see no logic in it changing here.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.25 at Tipico

Week 9 round-up (14/15)

A fine weekend for us. We were just one goal short from getting a return from all our bets (specifically, a goal by Kadrii for FC Copenhagen). Our Tip of the Week is still having a tough time. Hobro were in the lead, but in all fairness it was okay that they did not win. Our Twitbets are still our strongest weapon, so follow us on Twitter, especially around an hour before match kick-off where we will post bets based on starting line-ups! We can also post a small surplus for the season after this round:

AaB-Randers

Friday 26/9 18.30

AaB (6th) are in trouble at the moment. They lost 1-0 to FC Vestsjælland last weekend and it seems like they are having trouble following up on their impressive championship season. The offense is not working at the moment. Anders K. Jacobsen gets some chances, but is not very efficient, while Nicklas Helenius is obviously some way from his top form. The result might be that unproven youngster Viktor Ahlmann replaces Helenius. On the positive side, AaB will benefit from the return of the two backs Henrik Dalsgaard and Patrick Kristensen, which should bolster the back line. However, AaB are always strong at home, and this is probably the only reason AaB should be optimistic here. Randers (2nd) are playing some solid football, and getting plenty of points. They are not showing anything spectacular; they are just difficult to beat due to their strong organisation. Offensively they lack a striker in top form, but they manage to get slim wins anyway. We expect Randers to line-up with a very physical team with winger Kasper Fisker as the only a creative force.

AaB are struggling, while Randers have a lot of momentum at the moment. The bookies have noticed this and the offer for the away win is not outstanding, given that the home team is the defending champions. For us, the most interesting outcome here is under 2.5 goals. Randers are not giving away many chances, and they have gone under the line in the last five matches. AaB also lack firepower in front, but are looking quite solid at the back.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.87 at Betfair