Week 21 Superliga previews

Esbjerg-AGF

Friday 11/3 18.00

Esbjerg got a vital win in the relegation race last weekend. With the win against Randers, Esbjerg will feel confident and safe going into this match. Esbjerg have looked way stronger in 2016 than in 2015. Defensively, the winter break has really helped (also changed almost the entire backline). Furthermore, the return of midfielder Jeppe Andersen from long-term injury has added quality on the midfield. Esbjerg have also added quality on top with the signing of striker Ronnie Schwartz, who is a very talented finisher. AGF have had a really nice start to the year under new head coach Glen Riddersholm. They are playing with confidence and they have really improved their level. Last weekend they had to settle with one point against FC Copenhagen despite playing eleven against ten for 75 minutes, but Riddersholm had not made a selection to dominate a match, but instead to defend, and therefore AGF were not using the superiority very well. AGF have some midfield issues for this match. All three starters in the central midfield (Jønsson and Olsen (injuries) and Pedersen (ban) could be out as well as the favourite replacement (Lange (injury)). This is problematic and AGF will probably have to move winger Bjarnason (returning from ban) to central midfield, while creative midfielder Aabech and a youngster is set to form the rest of the central midfield. Offensively, AGF will hope that striker Morten Duncan is superior to the not very physical Esbjerg central defence. Central defender Elez also returns from ban here.

Esbjerg are brimming with confidence and they are not expected to have any absences here. Fine weather is expected so they could also expect fine support from the stands. AGF are also playing well at the moment and I think they have a stronger team. However, the absences in the midfield combined with being the away side make Esbjerg my favourite. Although, I have to admit that Duncan on a good day can really hurt the Esbjerg defence.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0) – 1.925 at Bet365

Viborg-SønderjyskE

Saturday 12/3 16.00

Viborg have got off to a strong start with four points in two games. It has been quite impressive, but in they have also faced pretty poor competition. Viborg are a team with strong defensive organisation and they play with lots a physique and a big work rate is always guaranteed. Furthermore, they have some players with offensive skills in Akharraz and Deble, which seems to be a strong combination. Midfielder Lerager returns from a ban to strengthen the central midfield. SønderjyskE are very similar to Viborg. It is also a hard working team and they are great a winning matches against teams of similar quality due to their commitment to the counter-attacking strategy. This strategy is also excellent for away games, where SønderjyskE tend to earn more points than at home. SønderjyskE showed promising things last weekend where they deservedly beat Brøndby 3-1. SønderjyskE are without important injuries.

SønderjyskE are very strong against teams from the middle or lower part of the table. This season, SønderjyskE have only lost against FC Copenhagen, AaB, FC Midtjylland, Brøndby and Randers – all the top teams. The last match versus Viborg ended in a 2-1 win to SønderjyskE. Viborg are in good shape and deserve credit. However, I cannot make them as big favourites as the bookies currently do – just considering how strong SønderjyskE are against teams of similar calibre.

Tip of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.39 at Cashpoint

OB-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 13/3 13.00

OB took an impressive win against AaB last weekend. They managed to get a clean sheet against one of the strongest attacks in the league. The performance was pretty uncharacteristic for OB as they were doing good at the back but not producing much offensively. Usually, it has been the other way around. OB will benefit from the return of Skulason and Greve from bans. Both could go into the starting line-up, but might also get a spot on the bench due to the strong effort of the others last weekend. This match will be entirely different for OB. At home against a lower ranked team, they need to dominate the match, which could leave their backline vulnerable once more. However, the offensive quality of Falk, Jacobsen and Festersen should be able to create something against a young FC Nordsjælland defence. FC Nordsjælland took an impressive win against FC Midtjylland on Monday (2-1). Yes, they capitalised from an early red card to FC Midtjylland, but they played a high quality passing game, which reminded of better days in the past. FC Nordsjælland have to deal with two bans here, as central defender Maxsø is banned, while the same is the case for speedy winger John. Mikkelsen who was sick last weekend could replace John. The defence is set to be very young with Skovgaard  (18 years old) starting besides Gregor (22 years old) in the centre. Offensively, FC Nordsjælland lack a true striker, but have speedy players in Mor and Moberg-Karlsson who can break through the opposition’s defence.

OB are set to dominate this match, while FC Nordsjælland will probably lurk on counter-attacks. As I see both defences quite vulnerable combined with talented offensive players, a match with several goals seem probable. Favourite bet is over, but I would also expect OB to come away with three points here as I overall see them as a stronger team and FC Nordsjælland tend to perform poorly in away games.

Ideas: Over 2.5 goals – 2.05 at Bet365

1 (AH -0.25) – 1.85 at Bet365

Brøndby-Randers

Sunday 13/3 16.00

This match has been surrounded by quite some stories. It started earlier this week, when it was discovered that Brøndby’s chairman of the board (and sugardaddy) had been criticizing the head coach using his son’s user at a Brøndby fan forum. This led to the resignation of head coach Thomas Frank who actually had done quite well in his time at Brøndby. He will now be replaced by former club legend Auri Skarbalius as a solution until the season ends. Skarbalius has coached Brøndby in the past without success and they were even close to relegation in his final season. Furthermore, it is well-known that several of the players have a bad relationship with Skarbalius, while the opposite was the case with Frank who was very close to his players. This led me to make a #Twitbets on Randers to win. However, later this week, chaos started in Randers. It was discovered that the team captain Christian Keller had started a romance with quality winger Jonas Borring’s wife. The frustration of Borring has led him to take a break from football, while Keller has been stripped the captaincy. There have also been stories about other players not satisfied with Keller’s behaviour. So this match is pretty much a match between two clubs in the state of chaos.

I don’t think this match will come down to footballing qualities, but more is a matter of who is capable to be most focussed on the match. Therefore it could really go either way here. I think, we are in a good position with our #Twitbets and I would even suggest trading out to secure a profit due to what has happened in Randers since.

#Twitbets: 2 – 3.50 at PartyBets

FC Copenhagen-AaB

Sunday 13/3 18.00

If FC Copenhagen win this I don’t think anyone can catch them. Therefore, it is a vital match for both teams in the title race. FC Copenhagen have looked solid, especially at the back, here in 2016. They face a test as central defender Zanka is banned and he is the defensive leader of FC Copenhagen. However, they have an experienced alternative in Antonsson, so it should not pose a huge problem. FC Copenhagen have a team of quality players all over and I expect it to be only a matter of time before the attack starts creating more. AaB have not come out to 2016 in the most impressive way. They lost 0-1 at home to OB last weekend, which was a huge disappointment. However, it is worth noticing that captain Würtz was out in that match, and there is a huge difference between how AaB perform with and without him. He is back here and it should really improve AaB’s game. AaB have a really potent offence on the good days, but they are likely to be pushed back, which is problematic since their defence is nothing spectacular.

FC Copenhagen are at home and looking solid. I think they deserve to be favourites in the size that the bookies are suggesting here. I think this will be too big a test for AaB who is not running on momentum like they were at the end of 2015. FC Copenhagen have won the last eight home league games against AaB and I don’t expect it to change here. Given the price only an idea pick though.

Idea: 1 – 1.80 at Tipico

FC Midtjylland-Hobro

Monday 14/3 19.00

FC Midtjylland have had a poor start to 2016. I don’t think you should underrate the loss of central defender Sviatchenko and striker Duncan. They have been crucial for the quality in both ends. FC Midtjylland have looked significantly weaker at the back with new signing Bodurov and a lot less dangerous offensively, where they have failed to put real pressure on an opponent this year. Head coach Thorup has showed a lot of faith in tall striker Onuachu, and although he can make some extraordinary things a times, I think he generally lowers the quality of FC Midtjylland’s attack. Instead he should consider using Martin Pusic who was the top goalscorer last season, but has not been in top form during this season. But to me, he seems like a more constant threat and way stronger tactically. FC Midtjylland have some suspension issues as two starters are out: right back Andre Rømer and central midfielder Kristoffer Olsson. None of them are key players, so FC Midtjylland should be able to cope due to their impressive squad depth. Hobro got hammered 0-6 last weekend against the team who they hoped to catch in the relegation race. Now they sit 11 points below survival and without confidence – it looks like a massive task even though they have a very experienced head coach. I think Hobro have qualities, especially some of the offensive players, but they are not playing as a team. And frankly, if they are not playing as a team, their defensive quality is just too poor to get anything in this league. However, this is kind of a free match for Hobro as no one expect them to get points here, so they should be able to play more freely.

Two teams that have disappointed big time in 2016. Normally, it should be a walk in the park for FC Midtjylland to beat Hobro at home, but the current form and confidence could make it a tougher task. However, given Hobro’s abysmal run, it is hard to see how the home team should fail here. Not worth the price though. No bet for me, but you could consider it on an accumulator.

Idea: 1 -1.31 at Nordicbet

Week 20 round-up

It was a very disappointing round as all recommendations failed. Some fine ideas made the bottom line look better, but it is not the idea picks that are supposed to be the profit-maker. The two recommendations were far off, while the Tip of the Week suffered from the stupid act of FC Midtjylland right back Andre Rømer who was sent off as FC Midtjylland was leading the game in the first half.

The odds spots were also rather poor this time around - only good odds movement for the Tip of the Week. Will have to do better in the next round. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

Hobro-Viborg 1 (+0.25)

Our pick: 1.94

Closing odds: 2.08

SønderjyskE-Brøndby 2 (+0)

Our pick: 1.90

Closing odds: 2.02

FC Nordsjælland-FC Midtjylland 2 (-0.25) (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.08

Closing odds: 1.98

Week 20 Superliga previews

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen

Thursday 3/3 20.00

Very decisive match for the upcoming months. If FC Copenhagen win they look odds on to win the title, while a FC Midtjylland win would really open up the title race. FC Midtjylland have started with a heavy schedule, facing Manchester United twice followed by an intense match against other top team AaB. Now, they finalise the heavy schedule with this match. A key player with a very intense style of playing like Pione Sisto could be a bit fatigued, but otherwise the schedule should not be a problem so early in the season. FC Midtjylland have a huge squad and they look particularly good at the centre of the pitch. The situation is not optimal in attack and defence though. In attack, they have made changes for every match in this season and no striker has done particularly well, while the defence looks weakened after losing Erik Sviatchenko in the winter break. The ruling is still out for replacement signing Nikolay Bodurov. FC Copenhagen were very strong defensively against Esbjerg in the opener. Esbjerg scored a goal, but it was through a deflected shot. In fact, Esbjerg only had two shots in the entire game, both from outside the box. Offensively, FC Copenhagen were not too impressive. The attack could need some games to get fully into gear, but they showed once again that they are the best team in the league when it comes to finishing off crosses (from which they scored both goals).

FC Midtjylland went 16-0-1 at home last season and they have a strong and expensive squad. In that light, the home win is tempting given the price. However, I have some concerns given the current situation in defence and attack. Therefore, I would rather pick FC Copenhagen here as they look to be in a better overall condition at the moment, but the price is simply not worth a recommendation.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 1.81 at Unibet

AaB-OB

Friday 4/3 18.00

AaB got a good result in Herning (1-1). They played a fine match and showed glimpses of the sparkling attack from autumn. This should be a match for AaB’s attack. At home they are expected to push forward in numbers against OB’s fragile defence. AaB will be without talismanic midfielder Rasmus Würtz. Würtz is a vital player as he secures the balance of the AaB team and the alternatives are nowhere near his level. AaB also risks being without veteran central defender Kenneth Emil Petersen who is doubtful. If he is out, AaB will field a fine but young defence. OB are very strong in attack, but quite fragile at the back. This was proven once more against AGF last weekend. They have huge problems defending their own goal, but with the likes of Falk, Jacobsen and Festersen in attack, they are a threat for every opponent. OB will miss two suspended players, left back Skulason and midfielder Greve. Not the most vital players, but OB lack a good replacement on the left back particularly, which good be a problem against AaB’s energetic wingers.

This does look like a home win – and AaB also smashed OB 5-1 earlier this season. The price has dropped quite a bit though on both overs and home win and I simply can’t recommend either at the current prices. PartyBets is a bit above the market with their 1.70 on over 2.5 goals and I think this is just around value.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.70 at PartyBets

Hobro-Viborg

Saturday 5/3 16.00

Hobro need a win here. If they want to survive it is matches like this that has to end with three points. Hobro did not get the best start as they lost 1-0 at Brøndby. They did create less than I expected offensively, although they have some potent players in George and Park. For this match, they could see their offensive star player Antipas return as a joker after missing the entire season. He has been looking good at the reserves. Hobro lack some power in the centre of the pitch, where they struggle to take control of matches. Viborg got a late point in the opener against FC Nordsjælland. However, they should have had more than that as they dominated the match. Viborg are a physically strong team with offensive X-factor in players like Deble and Akharraz. They are very focused on the defensive organisation and that is why they have only conceded 1.3 goals per match this season despite being one of the weaker sides in general. Viborg will miss central midfielder Lerager and the replacement will either be new-signing Fochive or Wichmann, who has not impressed at his time in Viborg.

Looking at the teams player-by-player, I must admit I only see Viborg as slightly better. At the same time, we can expect Hobro to come out with fire in the eyes as they must get something here. Therefore, I see this match as fairly even – this was also the case in the last H2H, where it ended 1-1. The price seems a bit too high for Hobro, but caution as they have been disappointing throughout the season.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.94 at Unibet

Esbjerg-Randers

Sunday 6/3 13.00

Esbjerg started the season with great energy. They played with a high work rate, and with a very defensive mindset. They were also able to defend quite well against a strong FC Copenhagen side, but they created nothing offensively. This could be the problem for Esbjerg as they have focused a lot on defence through the winter and not so much on the attack. Randers should be very disappointed with their first match of 2015 as they dominated SønderjyskE, but conceded an unnecessary late goal to make it a draw. Randers have maintained stability across the winter and I expect the well organised and physical strong team to have a fine spring.

Esbjerg hate playing Randers as they are often dominated physically. 6 out of the last 7 head-to-head matches have ended in a Randers win. With the weather being poor in Denmark; rainy and cold expected, it is to the advantage of the away side. I see better times ahead for Esbjerg, but they have made a lot of winter changes and probably need some more time. This could be a match with many free kicks as Esbjerg seem to be playing more aggressive now, and Randers are an aggressive side per nature.

Ideas: 2 (DNB) – 1.75 at Partybets

Over 22.5 free kicks – 1.85 at Nordicbet

SønderjyskE-Brøndby

Sunday 6/3 16.00

SønderjyskE reported that they were in great shape ahead of the first match of the season. Now they have played two matches and looked pretty weak in both. They do have a team that is cut out for hard work and poor pitches, so this is the time of the year, where they should earn some points. No important absences. Brøndby took a win against Hobro last weekend, which should be a morale booster given their issues with Hobro in the past. The new striker Wilczek got on the scoresheet and a striker with confidence is never a bad thing. Brøndby have defensive issues as their only two central defenders in the squad, Agger and Albrechtsen are both injured. Brøndby are forced to use central midfielder Ørnskov and left back Juelsgaard instead, which is clearly not ideal, but both players have a lot of experience. Brøndby are mostly focused on a good passing game, which could be an issue on a difficult pitch.

Brøndby have had the upper hand on SønderjyskE lately, but it has mostly been in home games. Now they face SønderjyskE in bad weather on a poor pitch and without their defensive general Agger. It could be difficult for Brøndby, although the current form of SønderjyskE scares. I was actually heading for a bet on SønderjyskE, but the odds drop have put the value on Brøndby. They should be a better team than SønderjyskE, who tend to struggle in home games due to their counter-attacking nature. The over odds look very generous. SønderjyskE have gone over in 7 out of 8 home games! Brøndby in 5 out of 9 away games.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 1.90 at Bet365

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.37 at Betfair Sportsbook

AGF-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 6/3 18.00

AGF have had a really good start under new head coach Riddersholm. They are playing with a lot of confidence despite not having the most impressive squad. However, the signing of striker Morten Duncan has been key as his striker abilities have given AGF a player that can win headers and finish with quality. However, AGF have some issues ahead of this match as midfielder Bjarnason who has played strongly so far and central defender Elez are both banned. Furthermore, veteran midfielder Danny Olsen is also in doubt due to injury. It is always a challenge to be without several starters. This will also be the case for FC Copenhagen. This is not do to bans or injuries but the coach’s disposition after some tough matches. FC Copenhagen also have a strong bench, so no matter who will be rested, solid replacements are available. FC Copenhagen are looking like a certain title winner and morale is likely to be high.

Both teams will be without some regulars here. Both are brimming with confidence, and I am sure it will be a match with intensity. It is also a match that easily could end in a draw and I think there is slim value in such a result, which would be acceptable for both. Of course the uncertainty regarding where FC Copenhagen will rest makes it a dangerous match for betting. Waiting on the starting line-ups could provide a good betting opportunity.

Idea: X – 3.60 at Sportingbet

FC Nordsjælland-FC Midtjylland

Monday 7/3 19.00

FC Nordsjælland only earned a point in Viborg thanks to the great display of youngster Emre Mor. Apart from this FC Nordsjælland young team performed poorly and I believe they could face a rather tough spring season. On the bright side is the return of veteran midfielder Martin Vingaard from ban. FC Nordsjælland are also often significantly stronger at home than away. FC Midtjylland have had some tough matches in 2016 and this is the first “easy” match in the schedule. FC Midtjylland are probably without strong central defender Kian Hansen, but apart from this they should be able to field the strongest team. FC Midtjylland have not looked particularly good offensively, but their midfield should be strong enough to dominate FC Nordsjælland, and if that is the case, FC Nordsjælland’s rather young defence will face a real test.

FC Midtjylland have had problems with FC Nordsjælland in the past, but the current FC Nordsjælland team does not convince me. It is very young and without a star player after the winter departure of Bruninho. FC Midtjylland have invested heavily in their side and they have much more quality. Yes, they suffered a some blows after losing to Manchester United and FC Copenhagen, but they should be eager to prove themselves here.

Tip of the Week: 2 – AH (-0.25) 2.08 at Unibet