Week 1 round-up (14/15)

The new season got off to an exciting start. As always, the first round is difficult since the true level of the teams is not easy to predict. Nevertheless, we hit 4 out of 7 bets, netting a ROI of +9%. Unfortunately, it was mainly our strongest bets that failed. Our Tip of the Week was a bit off. Midtjylland was simply better than Brøndby. The other failed recommendation (OB not winning against Hobro) ended up being a poor bet, since very important transfer news had an negative impact on our bet after its publication. Hopefully, such events won't affect our future bets. Stay tuned for more bets from Round 2.

FC Nordsjælland-FC Vestsjælland

Friday 18/7 18.30

FC Nordsjælland have looked rather unambitious during the transfer window. They have not signed a single player for the new season, which leave them vulnerable after the exit of some key players. The two most important exits are the central midfielder (captain and club legend) Nicolai Stokholm and the energetic right back Jens Stryger (left for Austria Vienna). They have also lost their coach, the talented Kasper Hjulmand, who signed for Mainz. New coach is the Icelandic Olafur Kristjansson, who have done well as coach in the Icelandic league. Kristjansson is expected to continue the typical style of play in Nordsjælland (preferring ball possession). FC Nordsjælland look to benefit from the return of full fitness for winger Uffe Bech, who could get his breakthrough season. On top, Kristjansson looks to give the young Kristian Lindberg the chance (in front of veterans Nordstrand and Aabech). Lindberg has been doing well in the friendlies, but he has still yet to impress in official matches. In total FC Nordsjælland are a decent team, but they do lack some squad depth. FC Vestsjælland are entering the second season in the best Danish football league. They will do that without the coach who got them promoted and avoided the relegation in the first season. Veteran coach Ove Pedersen disagreed with the board and decided to leave the job. New coach is the young Michael Hansen, who was the assistant under Pedersen. In opposition to Pedersen, Hansen is known for a more offensive minded approach to football. Therefore we should expect to see a FC Vestsjælland team trying to do other things than just demolish the opponent’s play and solely attack on set pieces (scored 19 out of 31 goals last season on set pieces). Coach Hansen will still use the 3-5-2 formation, but focus more on being goal seeking when having the ball. The question is whether they have the skills for this change of approach. FC Vestsjælland have signed some experienced players in winger Anders Due (former AaB) and defender Anders Østli (former Lillestrøm). The have lost some important players too though: central midfielder Morten Bertolt and central defender Lasse Nielsen, players who played a pivotal part in the survival last season. In total, FC Vestsjælland look to be at the same level as last year and they will probably have to fight for survival until the end of the season. Key left wingback Michael Lumb is absent with an injury.

In the three H2H’s last season FC Nordsjælland were unable to beat the physical FC Vestsjælland team (two losses and one draw). This could easily be the problem once again. However, the return of Uffe Bech on the right wing could easily be a problem for FC Vestsjælland without Michael Lumb. If FC Vestsjælland contain Bech, FC Nordsjælland could have a hard time scoring. With FC Nordsjælland mainly limited to dangers created by Uffe Bech and FC Vestsjælland mainly being able to attack on set pieces, we pick the Under 2.5 goal bet as the best solution for the match.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.90 at Bet365

SønderjyskE-AaB

Saturday 19/7 17.00

SønderjyskE made a brilliant comeback last season after being well underneath the relegation line at the winter break. A lot of the success of SønderjyskE in the spring can be credited to the offensive duo of Rubin Okotie (11 goals in 15 matches) and Tommy Bechmann. SønderjyskE have been unable to keep Okotie who has signed with 1860 Münich, while Tommy Bechmann will be absent for the first games due to an injury. SønderjyskE have just signed Bosnian attacker Bojan Golubovic, a 30-year old attacker who have scored a lot of goals in the Romanian league. It will be interesting to see if he can do so in the Danish league, but in any case he will probably need some time to adapt. Therefore SønderjyskE look very limited offensively, where midfielders Nikolaj Madsen and Silas Songani have been given a chance in the front line in recent friendlies. Defensively, SønderjyskE have lost Daniel Christensen, but replaced him with Erik Marxen, which looks like a decent swap. In total, SønderjyskE look solid at the back, but not very dangerous offensively. AaB took the double last season. The club has limited financial strength why an exodus was feared. However, of the important players, only winger Kasper Kusk and striker Rasmus Jönsson have left. To cover for Kusk, AaB have signed winger Thomas Enevoldsen. To cover for Jönsson, AaB have signed striker Nicklas Helenius who was the team’s top goalscorer (with 16 goals) two years ago. Both players are strong players, but they do lack match fitness. AaB are struggling with a few injuries. Right back Henrik Dalsgaard is still injured, while strong midfielder Nikolaj Thomsen is new to the injury list. Captain and central midfielder Rasmus Würtz is doubtful for the match. With AaB without Kusk and Thomsen, AaB look short of creativity for the first match.

A match between two teams whom look weaker than before the break. With the current squad situation, both are strongest at the back, why a match with few goals could be the end result. AaB should be favourites, but with the uncertainties surrounding the current level of the new signings, we skip betting on 1X2.

UPDATE: Würtz is confirmed out, the same with SønderjyskE's central midfielder Daniel Jensen. A problem for both teams - guess it evens out.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.08 at Betfair

OB-Hobro

Sunday 20/7 14.00

OB got an 8th place last season, but it was another disappointing season. The club from Denmark’s third biggest city has higher ambitions, but the quality of the squad is simply too low. OB have three very strong offensive players: Rasmus Falk, Baskhim Kadrii and Emil Larsen. And for once, they are all fit! The rest of the squad is not something special though. OB have lost veterans Morten Skoubo (striker), Mustafa Abdellaoue (striker), Anders Møller Christensen (central defender) and Espen Ruud (right back). Lasse Nielsen has been signed in FC Vestsjælland to cover in the central defence while Lasse Kryger has been signed in Horsens to cover the right back. They are decent signings, but nothing extraordinary. No extra players have been bought to cover the striker position. Therefore OB will probably be forced to line-up with the miserable Darko Bodul as striker (3 goals in 21 matches last season) alongside Kadrii. Hobro have been deemed the most likely team to go down in the history of the Superliga. Coming from a small town of only 12.000 inhabitants, the club has very limited resources, but will try to stay in the league through fight and hard work. They have signed some of the better players of the second best Danish football league, hoping that they will succeed at the highest level (for instance striker Emil Berggreen and winger Martin Mikkelsen). But bottom-line is that Hobro played a poor spring season after losing star player Kasper Fisker to Randers. They barely got promoted, and the pre-season friendly matches have been frightening with Hobro losing all four matches. Hobro is likely to get their best chances on set pieces with the tall defenders Justesen and Egholm.

Although we dread OB might face another tough season, we believe that they should be capable of beating Hobro. The likes of Falk and Larsen will pose tremendous problems on the flanks, while we expect Kadrii to have good chances of scoring in this match. Hobro will try to defend their way through the match, but on a sunny day in Odense, we believe it will be a difficult mission. The odds on OB have increased and are now at an interesting level.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1) – 2.05 at Bet365 (no longer value)

UPDATE: Kadrii has just signed with FC Copenhagen. No longer value in OB! 

UPDATE v2: Quincy Antipas, speedy winger/attacker from Brøndby, has just signed with Hobro! Quality signing and surprising that a bigger club like OB did not pick him up. Is in the squad for the match and is an eternal threat although he has poor finishing. Value currently in Hobro!

Silkeborg-FC København

Sunday 20/7 17.00

Silkeborg are the other promoted club this season (together with Hobro). Opposite to Hobro, Silkeborg are a team with many experienced players (for instance Dennis Flinta, Jesper Mikkelsen and Frank Hansen). We expect that Silkeborg have a good chance of surviving in the Superliga. The addition of Nikolaj Agger (offensive midfielder/striker) from Vejle was a very good signing and Silkeborg looks like a complete team without any obvious weaknesses. They do lack a star player though and they will need a strong team effort to earn results. For the first match Silkeborg will be without regulars Daniel A. Pedersen and Simon Jakobsen. The pre-season friendlies offered mixed results. They started with an abysmal 0-5 defeat to Viborg, but have since rebounded with a win against Hobro and a draw against OB. FC Copenhagen have made a truckload of squad changes after a poor season last year. Six players who played a considerable part of last season’s second place have left (Braaten, Jacobsen, Kristensen, Bolaños, Vetokele and Margreitter). FC Copenhagen have signed six strong players for the upcoming season. Goalkeeper Stephan Andersen (24 caps for Denmark) upgrades the goalkeeping position. The defence has experienced a large makeover, where only left back Pierre Bengtsson is expected to be a repetition from last season. New signings Tom Høgli, Mathias Zanka and Per Nilsson will cover the remaining positions. They are all quality players with several caps for their respective nations.  The central midfield has been upgraded with the signing of Argentine Franco Mussis (injured for the first match though) and Ghanaian Daniel Amartey. Belgian Steve de Ridder has been bought for the attack. FC Copenhagen still have the star winger Nicolaj Jørgensen who should be back to full fitness after an injury in spring. The pre-season friendlies have been rather unimpressive, which is not unnatural with so many new players in the starting line-ups. FC Copenhagen could face some problems in the first few matches, but from then on, they should have the quality to be favourites for the league title.

While Silkeborg have made almost no changes to their squad, FC Copenhagen will probably field six new players. FC Copenhagen are clearly the better team, but may face problems due to the players being less acquainted with each other. First matches are difficult to bet on, but if we had to, we would go with Silkeborg in this one.

Idea: 1 (AH +1) – 1.84 at Ladbrokes

FC Midtjylland-Brøndby

Sunday 20/7 19.00

FC Midtjylland have experienced some changes over the break. Key players from last season, goalkeeper Jonas Lössl and left back Jesper Juelsgaard have left. FC Midtjylland have signed Lasse Heinze as new goalkeeper (slight weakening) and Tim Sparv (Finnish international midfielder). To cover for Juelsgaard, Jesper Lauridsen returns from loan in Hobro. He should be a fine replacement although FC Midtjylland will miss Juelsgaard’s strong crossing abilities (8 assists last season). FC Midtjylland have looked strong in the pre-season matches (3 clear wins) despite having to deal with injuries for key players. Midfielders Marco Larsen and Eyjolfur Hedinsson, and defender Erik Sviatchenko are all absent for the first match. Midfielders Jakob Poulsen and Rilwan Hassan are doubtful for the match. FC Midtjylland have quite a squad depth, especially in the midfield, so they will still be able to compete. Brøndby have also looked very strong in the pre-season friendlies (winning most – including a 2-1 win against Liverpool). Brøndby had a good season last year in the first year under coach Thomas Frank and they could improve their 4th place this year. The addition of Swedish veteran striker Johan Elmander from Galatasaray is a strong signing, while Fredrik Berge from Odd Grenland will have to cover a spot in the central defence after the exit of Khalid Boulahrouz. Of the important players, only winger Andrew Hjulsager is absent, and Brøndby are actually struggling with positive problems due to all the good players being available for the line-up. Brøndby have the best goalkeeper in the league (Lukas Hradecky), a strong midfield and a dangerous attack. Only the defence does not appear to have title quality.

The two teams that have looked best in the pre-season friendlies will compete in a match that could give a clear signal of who will be FC Copenhagen’s main challenger for the league title. FC Midtjylland are struggling with some injuries, and although the alternatives are fine, we believe that it gives Brøndby the upper hand. In our opinion the bookies are generous by offering the highest price for away win.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) – 2.08 at Bet365

Esbjerg-Randers

Monday 20/7 19.00

Esbjerg were one of the positive surprises last season with a 5th place and earning advancement from the Europa League group stage. The strong performance led to Esbjerg’s players attracting attention from abroad and in the end also to the exit of right back Peter Ankersen and central defender Kian Hansen. Both players had a very strong influence on Esbjerg’s performances over the previous seasons. Furthermore, attacker Mushaga Bakenga (6 goals last season) has left. The exits have not been covered in impressive manner. Eddi Gomes has been signed for the central defence from HB Køge (did not impress in last match) and Lasse Rise has been signed from Randers (but he is always injured). In total, it leaves Esbjerg significantly weaker than last season. Against FC Kairat Almaty in an away Europa League match this Thursday Esbjerg got 1-1, but they were hardly able to create a big chance during 90 minutes. Esbjerg were without their star striker Martin Pusic, and if he is absent for Monday as well Esbjerg face severe scoring problems. Captain Hans-Henrik Andreasen and strong left back Jonas Knudsen are also doubtful for the match. Esbjerg lack a quality cover for Jonas Knudsen. Randers have lost their main profile, striker Ronnie Schwartz (15 goals last season). With preferred second striker, Nikolaj Brock-Madsen injured, Randers only have two options for the striking line-up: Viktor Lundberg and Djiby Fall. Both had a poor last season, but Lundberg has looked good in the pre-season friendlies. While Randers face some issues offensively, they look better in the midfield and defence, where they have some solid and experienced players. Winger Borring is injured, but with Fisker and Kamper fit it is not a major issue. In fact the wings might be the preferred spot of attack with the possible absence of Esbjerg left back Knudsen. In defence left back Tamboura is doubtful, but cover Fischer has done okay in his appearances. Randers have also signed a new goalkeeper in the Swede Karl-Johan Johnsson, and it will be interesting to see if he is an improvement to the average Peter Friis Jensen.

Esbjerg have lost some vital players and they lack the squad depth to cover these absences. With the potential absences of striker Pusic and left back Knudsen, Esbjerg look very vulnerable. Despite Randers are without a quality striker, they will have a good chance of earning points in Esbjerg. The experienced and physically strong team will be hard to break down for an Esbjerg team that played Europa League in Kazakhstan on Thursday (and had plane flight of more than 12 hours!).

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) - 1.85 at Bet365

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.86 at Betfair

UPDATE: Esbjerg's Pusic and Knudsen in called squad, but their participation is still not certain. Captain Hans-Henrik Andreasen not in called squad. In our opinion, still value in Randers points.

UPDATE v2: According to local newspaper, JV, Esbjerg is expected to rest several key players: Fellah, Pusic and Knudsen. Expected front-line is Lyng and Vestergaard, which should not scare an experienced Randers defence. Esbjerg will have a hard time scoring. Only winger Ankersen a real threat.

Week 33 (and season) round-up

The Danish Superliga season 2013/2014 has been over for some weeks. So you can easily accuse us of being slow with this update, but rather now than never!

The last Superliga round was decent. We got our Tip of the Week: AGF were poor as expected and could not score. We were very disappointed by Randers who should have won against FC Vestsjælland (1-1). Otherwise a good weekend.

We added the six long-term Twitbets that finished with the season ending (see them here: http://superligabets.blogspot.dk/2014/02/twitbets-list-of-our-season-bets-from.html). We got five out of six bets correct and we really hope you followed them as they were posted on Twitter!

In total, the season was fine. We ended with a return of +2% thanks to a terrific 2014 where we netted a return of +16%! We are not totally satisfied since the base of our success has been our ideas (+8% return) - the weakest of our betting advices. Our Tip of the Week netted a season return of +2% where we set +10% as the objective. Likewise for our recommendations that netted a return of -5% where we set positive return as the objective.

We hope you followed us and achieved a profit while doing it! Next season starts in a month. We are yet uncertain as to whether we will continue since it is very time consuming and we earn nothing doing so (could be nice if someone used our bookie links for signing up). We would love feedback, so feel free to write to us!